Despite positive momentum in 2023, international inbound travel and domestic business travel in the U.S. are projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
According to the United States Travel Association’s biannual U.S. travel forecast, which was prepared by Tourism Economics and released Wednesday, international arrivals to the U.S. are projected to surpass 2019 levels in 2025, while business travel volume is expected to fully recover by 2026.
“While we inch back to pre-pandemic travel numbers, other countries are actively advancing strategies to gain international visitors and are now ahead of the United States in the race to win back the global travel market,” U.S. Travel Association President and CEO Geoff Freeman said in a news release. “The federal government can and must enact specific policies to jump-start a more seamless, efficient and globally competitive travel industry.”
International inbound travel volume is expected to reach 98% of 2019 levels in 2024, up from 84% recovered in 2023, according to the forecast. Full recovery is projected to occur in 2025 in terms of volume, but it will take until 2026 to recover international spending levels when adjusted for inflation.
Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality analytics at CoStar Group, said there is still "a sizable decline of tourists visiting the U.S." after 2023 saw an influx of outbound international travel go unmatched by inbound travel to the U.S.
"By the looks of it, this decline in inbound visitors will not be reversed for a while, and that probably will hurt coastal markets on the East Coast and West Coast and large destinations such as Chicago or Las Vegas. Operators will need to contend with this reality and try to do their best to attract those inbound travelers that venture abroad and at the same time emphasize their marketing to the domestic audience," he said.
Business travel will continue its upward recovery trend in 2024 but at a slower rate than last year. It’s expected to hit $413.3 million, which would be 95% of 2019 levels, up from 89% in 2023 and 79% in 2022.
Harry Carr, senior vice president of revenue management for Pivot, said both segments were down by double-digit percentages heading into 2024 during a December interview with Hotel News Now.
"We feel that the industry is stabilized but it is hard to say that the current conditions are the new normal. Business travel remains at 10% to 20% below 2019 levels. Inbound international travel still lags 15% below 2019 levels. Airline capacity has improved but prices remain high,” he said.
The U.S. Travel Association listed some ways it believes the federal government could accelerate travel growth and global competitiveness, including: lowering U.S. visitor visa interview and customs wait times; accelerating biometric entry-exit security at airports; and increasing federal prioritization and focus on travel growth.