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Canadian commercial real estate activity yet to feel effect of lower interest rates

Capital gains change boosted sales volumes in second quarter, but effect appears to be transitory

Canadian annualized commercial real estate sales volume sits at $36.5 billion, the lowest level since early 2021. On a quarterly basis, transaction volumes have averaged less than $10 billion per quarter for the first three quarters of this year. This suggests that year-end 2024 transaction levels will likely be below the $40 billion mark, making this the weakest year in terms of sales activity since 2020, when $28 billion changed hands.

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