The fallout from an ongoing diplomatic dispute between Canada and India over the June 2022 killing of a Sikh separatist in Canada could pack a major financial impact on Canada’s universities and affect housing demand as schools wait to see if Canada matches India’s recent decision to stop issuing visas to Canadians.
A reciprocation on the Canadian government's part could prevent about 230,000 Indian students from entering Canada, which would have a major financial impact on Canada’s universities and real estate.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has thus far declined to comment on whether Canada might suspend visas to applicants from India.
About 41% of Canada’s foreign students come from India, which sends more international students to Canada than any other single country. There are 230,000 Indian students and 700,000 non-resident Indians in Canada, according to the High Commission of India in Ottawa, which reports that Indian students pay around $4 billion in tuition fees to Canadian educational institutions.
Indian students have also played a role in Canada's housing crunch, which has seen the national vacancy drop to 1.9% at the end of 2022 from 3.1% a year earlier. The 230,000 Indian students in Canada form a total population similar to the size of Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada’s 18th-largest city. To put this into perspective, if every Indian student occupied a home in Canada, the total would represent 1.5% of Canada’s 15 million occupied private dwellings.
Canada plans to host 900,000 international students next year, according to Immigration Minister Marc Miller, who recently told Parliament that the practice is “very lucrative,” a reference to the higher tuition fees paid by foreign students to attend Canadian universities.
Post-secondary schools have benefited greatly from enrollment from abroad and the added revenue. For example, at McGill University in Montreal, international students comprise 12,000 of the total student body's count of 34,840. Local students pay $2,391 in tuition, while Canadian domestic students from outside of the province pay $7,402 and international students pay $29,200, according to the school’s website. About 777 McGill students are from India, which represents about $25.5 million to the school’s bottom line.
"McGill does not advise that international students make travel plans until they have obtained all of their immigration documents," a representative of the school wrote in response to an email asking about the situation.
Potential Pinch
Other Canadian universities that would feel the pinch include the University of Toronto, which has 25,000 international students, including about 2,400 from India. About 30% of the University of Toronto’s 86,000 students are international students — a rate similar to McGill and the University of British Columbia.
The percentage has doubled in the last 10 years and the University of Toronto plans to further increase its numbers by 10% over the next five years, according to its most recent enrollment report. About 58% of the school’s international students are from China, while 9% are from India and Pakistan.
The University of Toronto acknowledged the uncertainty concerning the future of its 2,400 students from India in a recent note.
“The situation is evolving rapidly, causing uncertainty and stress, and we do not yet have answers to many of the pressing questions it raises,” said Joseph Wong, vice president of international at the University of Toronto, in a Sept. 26 note on the school's website.
The University of Waterloo has also expressed concern with the situation as it has 8,400 international students among its 42,000 students. About 24% of that total is from India.
“The University is watching this issue closely and will continue to provide support to our current group of international students who may be concerned about what recent developments mean for them,” a representative of the school told CoStar News in an email.
The diplomatic feud between the two countries began last month when Prime Minister Trudeau announced his government was investigating “credible allegations” the Indian government allegedly orchestrated the slaying of Sikh Nationalist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada last June. India objected to the charge and stopped issuing visas to Canadian citizens. India has also asked Canada to withdraw 41 of its 62 diplomats from India by Oct. 10.
The High Commission of India in Ottawa has issued an advisory for Indian Nationals and students to “exercise utmost caution” in Canada, citing “threats [that] have particularly targeted Indian diplomats and sections of the Indian community who oppose the anti-India agenda.”