BERLIN — The political rhetoric emanating from the U.S. is stirring some uncertainty abroad.
On the first day of the International Hotel Investment Forum EMEA, speakers acknowledged that tensions between the U.S. and its allies could dampen travel expectations for the remainder of the year. Some even warned of a possible end to globalization.
For now, hoteliers in Europe need to assess their strategies in terms of how their supply chains and guest demand from feeder markets could be affected.
Here are some more highlights from the first day of the conference.
Photos of the day
Quotes of the day
“The average Accor guest is 47 years of age. We are not thinking enough of the 15- to 30-year-olds. We need to adapt. That might also have something to do with the average age of hotel firm CEOs.” — Sébastien Bazin, group chairman and CEO of Accor
"Talk openly about the things you are not an expert in. Because by admitting that we need other people alongside us, that’s how we create space for diversity and we show that there is value in diversity so we will do a better job avoiding those blind spots." — Kristen Kozlowski, head of strategy and business development at PineBridge Benson Elliot
Editors' takeaways
Hoteliers generally are an optimistic bunch and have the tools, flexibility and, above all, the product to navigate any storm on the horizon. That feeling largely flowed through the first day of the 2025 edition of the International Hotel Investment Forum.
That said, if this event had been held on Jan. 19, the champagne bubbles might have been reaching the top of the glass if not actually spilling over the edge.
The new presidential administration in the U.S. already is having a marked effect, not only on the hotel industry but around the globe. Two of Day 1's speakers included Alexander Börsch, chief economist and head of research at Deloitte Germany; and Jon Sopel, one of the United Kingdom’s most recognized journalists who spent numerous years as the BBC’s editor in the U.S. In fact, Sopel spent the whole of the first term of Donald Trump’s presidency flying in Air Force One as part of his coverage of U.S. politics.
Both predicted the further decline in globalization, with Börsch stating we would see an era of deglobalization, re-globalization or fragmentation.
“Global linkages have been on a downward trend in the 2020s, with a stronger decline since 2022. … Deteriorating geopolitical alignment is driving deglobalization,” Börsch said.
This affects hotels, he added, in that guests might increasingly derive from not international markets but from new clusters of regional trade and cooperation. Historically, the European industry has leaned heavily on U.S. guests, especially in the upscale and luxury segments.
Sopel added that Trump's first 70 days in office in his second term drove “the most fundamental shift (in geopolitics) since the end of the Cold War.”
He also warned that the last time U.S. tariffs were touted so aggressively was 100 or so years ago. In June 1930, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was a piece of legislation that many say contributed notably to the onset of the Great Depression, the Dust Bowl and intra-U.S. migration to the Western states, Sopel said.
Hoteliers and politicians in Europe have much to ponder.
Börsch said that while trade restrictions between countries are taking shape, so are free-trade agreements, but they are being formalized in regional clusters.
He said hoteliers need to ask two questions, “How can we expand geo-economic expertise and reduce uncertainties, and what influences do geo-economic trends and risks have on my markets, investments and supply chains?”
— Terence Baker, news editor, Europe, Middle East and Africa
Follow Terence Baker on LinkedIn
Having covered the hotel industry from the U.S., it was interesting today to hear some different perspectives on all the uncertainty hoteliers are facing currently. While we did not hear much of that directly from hoteliers today, I imagine that will likely be on the menu on the second day of the conference.
Businesses generally like it when things are calm and predictable. That's not to say there aren't opportunities created by disruption and downturns, but most companies — and consumers — like it when they feel comfortable spending money won't lead to major financial problems. What we're currently seeing is some wariness over what is yet to come, maybe.
People will still travel, naturally, as more people have made it a priority. How much we see originate in the U.S. and lead elsewhere compared to how much goes to the U.S. remains to be seen, but even with the increased divisiveness that we've seen, I liked the take from Sébastien Bazin at Accor about welcoming all travelers.
"Let's leave the leaders to decide what they have to decide. But in terms of population, it's all about caring, interconnecting people and culture. Let's not miss that moment and be too focused on government leadership."
— Bryan Wroten, senior reporter
Follow Bryan Wroten on LinkedIn