Amazon sneezes, and the whole industry catches a cold? The e-commerce pure player usually sets the tone for the logistics sector and, by capillary action, for the logistics real estate market. Today, however, Jeff Bezos 's company is laying off staff, and many of its boss-sized projects are still on the drawing board. Without wishing to cut corners, 2022 will be remembered as a year of setbacks on the take-up front in virtually all markets. There's no doubt that user demand declined in 2022, and the same should be true of 2023. What could be more logical for a business directly correlated with economic activity? Our panel - which examined the assets and intentions of some thirty investors - is unequivocal: in 2023, only 41% of respondents anticipate growth in expressed demand for logistics warehouses. Last year, the figure was... 92%. Worse still, only 17% of our respondents expect growth in expressed demand. Here too, there is disappointment, even disenchantment. They were... 96% a year earlier. Another world...
Against this backdrop of deteriorating market conditions, the appetite of investors (mainly North American and French) for this genuine asset class remains undiminished. All agree that the logistics product has many virtues: sound fundamentals, solid underlyings, reasoned market conditions with dynamic long-term demand, very low vacancies, contained new-build development and rental value growth scheduled for the coming years. The slowdown in investment in logistics real estate in France is only temporary. The repricing observed is more the consequence of refinancing difficulties and rising interest rates than of a manifest lack of interest in this essential asset class - as Covid demonstrated for those who still had doubts. And logistics real estate specialists are no more worried than that about the medium term.
The second half of the year should reassure investors and users alike. As proof of this, a number of XXL portfolios continue to circulate on the market and arouse covetousness, even if investor optimism is somewhat dented. So much so that some of them - a handful, in fact - are taking the liberty of looking beyond their own borders in two major directions: urban logistics, which is still seeking a definition, and industrial logistics, by which I mean all those sites which yesterday housed production lines and which tomorrow will be transformed into housing, offices, neighborhoods or... logistics. This asset class never ceases to face competition.
- Attend the Hors-Série Logistique 2023 Barometer conference: "Logistics real estate: stop or stop again?", on April 18, by registering here.