Investment activity from United States-based buyers into United Kingdom commercial real estate rose substantially in the first quarter of the year, with London recording its highest share versus the rest of the United Kingdom in almost a decade.
Analysis from BNP Paribas Real Estate finds that total UK inward investment from US-based buyers recorded a 64% year on year increase from £1.9 billion in the first quarter of 2023 to £3 billion in the first quarter of 2024. There was a 117% increase from the £1.4 billion recorded in the final quarter of last year to the £3 billion to the first quarter of this, the biggest quarterly increase since the COVID pandemic. The 5 and 10-year quarterly averages are £2.8 billion and £2.6 billion respectively.
Total UK inward investment from US-based buyers closed at £7.6 billion in 2023, the lowest annual figure since 2018 at £6 billion. BNP PRE says the early activity suggests the UK is on track to exceed this in 2024.
Charlie Tattersall, senior associate director, capital markets research at BNP Paribas Real Estate, explained that the US commercial real estate market continues to face turbulence in the form of foreclosures, tight financial conditions and a slow return of staff to office spaces, while at the same time, geopolitical instability and stronger-than-expected economic growth relative to Europe has strengthened the dollar and widened the spread between US and European debt costs. "As a result, capital is increasingly being driven towards markets such as central London, where leasing fundamentals are more attractive and the currency effect more favourable.”
Simon Williams, head of national markets at BNP Paribas Real Estate, suggested that London and much of the UK may now offer the "value correction narrative", that the UK corrected faster than elsewhere, which supports opportunistic and value-add led investment from US capital.
"As interest rates begin to come down materially in the coming months and liquidity gradually improves, we anticipate this trend to persist as the real estate recovery continues to play out into the second part of this year and beyond.”
Of the £3 billion invested in Q1 2024, London commercial property secured £1.9 billion, which is the highest total since Q4 2015 (£2.7 billion), and a 63% share of the national figure. It is the highest share London has secured since the first quarter 2019 where it achieved a 78% split at £1.6 billion of the total UK figure which stood at £6.5 billion.
London hotel and office transactions dominated the £1.9 billion total, at £871 million and £575 million respectively, backed by a series of deals including: BT Group’s £275 million sale of the BT Tower for hotel redevelopment to MCR; Langham Estate’s £300 million mixed-use portfolio sale to Oval Real Estate and Elliott Management; Starwood Capital’s acquisition of a £800 million portfolio of 10 hotels from Edwardian Group; and Ares’ purchase of 25 Charterhouse Square for £43.5 million of Shaftesbury Capital’s Fitzrovia holdings
Fergus Keane, head of central London capital markets at BNP Paribas Real Estate, said US capital is firmly back in the market.
"Recently, in a clear vote of confidence in central London, Blackstone completed on the acquisition of Oxford Properties’ 130-134 New Bond Street for £227 million, at a 3.5% yield and is reportedly considering other opportunities in the capital. This is possibly the clearest sign so far this year that, despite continuing macroeconomic volatility, London’s pricing and occupational market are compelling enough for investors to begin targeting the commercial real estate sector again.”
On the impact of the US election, Keane added: “In any country, domestic political tension can prompt investors to become more agile with their capital. In the case of the US, this is certainly at play, but there are many more investment levers in the mix. The fundamental attractiveness of the UK real estate market is the key driver here, and the strength of the dollar against the pound, coupled with where the UK is at this point in the cycle, are the more dominant themes at the moment.
According to the firm’s latest London office data, City prime rents have increased from £75 to £77.50 per square foot and Mayfair/St James from £150 to £155 per square foot.