At the end of the 2024 financial year, total residential investment in France, as defined by ImmoStat, stands at €3 billion, down 10% on 2023 — the decline being more significant in the fourth quarter of 2024, when investment was down negative 47%, or €621 million.
Behind this observation lie a number of disparities. Nicolas Verdillon, managing director of investment properties at CBRE France, agrees: "Be careful how you read it, as this drop is in fact caused by low volumes in managed serviced residences (-57%), whereas conventional residential has increased by 19% compared to 2023."
He's right: conventional and intermediate residential assets, added together by GIE, totaled €2.5 billion in 2024, up 14%, despite a drop recorded in the fourth quarter of 2024 of negative 44% or €510 million. "This increase can be explained by investors positioning themselves on the residential market after a wait-and-see period linked to a correction in values that occurred during 2023," analyzes Isabelle Vaz, head of residential capital markets at BPCE Real Estate Solutions. "Many investors, both commercial and institutional, have turned their attention to this class, which now offers excellent short- and medium-term opportunities, thanks to the reconstitution of the discount between block and cut," confirms Stéphane Imowicz, chairman of Ikory, a Parisian real estate consulting firm.
The Île-de-France region accounted for 86% of Ikory's business, thanks in particular to large-scale transactions such as CDC Investissement Immobilier's recent acquisition of the complex at 90-92 avenue Victor Hugo and 1-3 avenue Hubert-Germain for €104.5 million, and OFI Invest Real Estate's sale of the building at 25-27 avenue du Docteur Arnold Netter, in Paris's 12th arrondissement, to RIVP for over €90 million. The latter was a major player in 2024, with nearly 30 acquisitions completed for a sum close to €300 million.
"The year 2024 will have been marked by a premium for existing buildings in the Paris region, and even in Paris itself, and a high level of pre-emption or direct acquisition activity by the City of Paris," summarizes Florence Sémelin, director of residential investment and managed assets in JLL's investment department. Jean-François Morineau, deputy managing director of BNP Paribas Real Estate's Conseil Habitation et Hospitality, notes "the return of core investors from the second half of 2024" and the sale of around ten portfolios, including the one sold by GL Immobilier Marais to developer 6e Sens Immobilier Investissement for over €60 million.
According to ImmoStat figures, residential assets under management totaled €475 million in 2024, down 57% on 2023. For Stéphane Imowicz, this decrease "is essentially due to a lack of offers meeting buyers' expectations in terms of yield. As we have not yet seen an adjustment in buy-to-let values, only the portfolios of existing residences, particularly student residences, are finding takers."
JLL notes that the volume of investment in senior residences is only €74 million (negative 57% year over year). In coliving, €234 million were invested, a total almost halved year over year. M&G Real Estate's acquisition of a 291-apartment project in Ferney-Voltaire for €44 million was the only transaction recorded in the last three months. Lastly, in the student residences segment, €168 million were transacted, down 67% year over year, mainly due to a lack of opportunities.
"Residential is proving its resilience," sums up Béatrice de Quinsonas, director of research at BPCE Solutions Immobilières, who lends herself to the game of comparisons: "Whereas in 2019, office amounts were seven times higher than residential amounts, they are now only 1.6 times higher."
"The momentum of the residential investment market in France is being confirmed," agrees Alexandra Paulin, director of residential and healthcare at Cushman & Wakefield's Capital Markets France division. "With demand still buoyant and supply continuing to increase, 2025 promises to be a year of great opportunities for investors."
A return of mega-deals
A view shared by all, notably Florence Sémelin (JLL), who anticipates a "return of large-scale portfolios, particularly in conventional housing and student residences." "On the other hand, the market will undoubtedly remain complicated for senior residences and fixed-rate leases, for which no sign of improvement is likely to be seen before the municipal elections in 2026, except perhaps for home-ownership," she moderates.
"Major portfolio arbitrage deals are currently under review, which means we can anticipate, in 2025, the return of residential mega-deals that have disappeared from the landscape since 2022," predicts Stéphane Imowicz.
"Residential is no longer an option and is at the top of investors' roadmaps, as our latest CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2025 reveals," concludes Nicolas Verdillon. "A number of large-scale portfolios and assets should be able to respond to the need for diversification, and contribute significantly to volumes over the next 18 months. That said, despite the resilience of living, the balance between regulation, security and profitability remains to be consolidated."