U.S. store closings are expected by some analysts to more than double in 2025 from last year's total and surpass pandemic figures, driven by liquidations and scaled-back retail footprints.
Following a spike in 2024, store closings will escalate this year to roughly 15,000, according to Coresight Research, a New York-based retail data and consultant firm. Store openings "will remain steady" with about 5,800 debuting nationally this year, Coresight said in a report released Thursday.
The projected closings would surpass last year's total of 7,325, the highest number since 2020 — the height of the pandemic — when Coresight tracked almost 10,000 closings. On the flip side, there were 5,970 store openings in 2024, the highest number since Coresight began monitoring that data in 2012. But overall, store closings outpaced openings in 2024 with a net loss of 1,355 stores, according to Coresight.
The U.S. retail industry endured a rocky 2024, facing consumers cutting back on spending, the aftershock of the pandemic and rising costs due to inflation and high interest rates. That led to consequences that are likely to resurface again this year, according to Coresight.
Coresight's estimates of 2025 store closings are much higher than most other forecasts, except from global investment bank UBS, according to Brandon Svec, national director of U.S. retail analytics for CoStar Group. In 2023, UBS predicted there would be some 50,000 U.S. store closings by 2027.
Of course, it remains to be seen how the numbers finally pan out. Despite last year's closings, the U.S. retail vacancy rate remains a low 4.1%, according to CoStar data. Demand for retail space has remained, but slowed down, according to Svec. He said in an analysis in November that retail tenants filled 5.2 million square feet during the third quarter, the second-lowest total since the sector emerged from pandemic lockdowns. Only the first quarter of 2024 saw weaker expansion in demand, according to Svec.
Coresight said it expects major 2025 store closings to fall "into three broad categories: liquidations resulting in all stores closing; distressed retailers closing large swathes of stores, often under Chapter 11 bankruptcy restructuring; and legacy retailers reshaping their store footprints due to a changed retail context."
Store closing leaders
The store closings announced late last year and early this year by Party City, Big Lots, Kohl’s and Macy’s are fueling "the elevated closure numbers" that have already kicked off the new year, according to Coresight. Year to date in 2025, there are over 2,000 planned closings and just over 1,000 openings, Coresight said. And major U.S. retailers have announced 29.6% fewer openings and 334.3% more closings when compared to the year-earlier period.
As of Jan. 10, Party City and Big Lots lead in store closings this year. Due to their bankruptcies, Party City plans to close an estimated 738 stores, while Big Lots plans to shut 601 stores in 2025, Coresight said. Party City is closing its store fleet after filing for Chapter 11, while Big Lots is auctioning hundreds of store leases. Macy's plans to close 66 stores this year, while Kohl's will shut 27.
“Inflation and a growing preference among consumers to shop online to find the cheapest deals took a toll on brick-and-mortar retailers in 2024,” Coresight CEO Deborah Weinswig said in a statement. “Retailers that were unable to adapt supply chains and implement technology to cut costs were significantly impacted, and we continue to see a trend of consumers opting for the path of least resistance. Not only do they want the best prices, but they also have no patience for stores that are constantly disorganized, out of stock, and that deliver poor customer service."
In its report, Coresight noted that retailers have enjoyed a "strong 2024 holiday performance" and that there were "positive trends" in consumer sentiment metrics. However, it said that was being offset by the "overflow of bankruptcies and closures announced in 2024."
New competitors Shein and Temu are also "pressuring incumbent retailers," Coresight said.
Millions of square feet
"We expect general-merchandise retailers across a wide range of categories, from automotive to home and pet, to be threatened by the further growth of Temu and the scaling of Shein’s non-clothing offering," according to Coresight.
Retailers shutting stores last year resulted in an estimated 119.3 million square feet of closed retail space, while store debuts led to about 96.5 million square feet of new retail space, Coresight said.
By sector, general merchandise discounters and apparel sellers opened and closed the most stores last year, Coresight said. Discount chains closed 1,754 retail locations, taking the number one spot for U.S. closings by sector, at 23.9% of total closings, followed by the apparel sector, which closed 1,383 stores. But discount chains also led the way in terms of store openings by sector, opening 1,767 stores in 2024, 29.5% of total openings, followed by the apparel sector — including clothing, footwear and accessories stores — opening 1,478 stores, according to Coresight.