Rezarta Mucka, the manager of a flagship Walmart Supercenter in North Jersey, recalls the days when shoppers would line up early the morning after Thanksgiving to get the first crack at markdowns and other deals. But times have changed, and she doesn't expect that this year.
Consumers can now buy Walmart merchandise online, and the retail giant has already held several big in-store preholiday sales, Mucka said in an interview. "Either online or in store, they have those options. We don't see that huge crowd that we used to see."
The shopping weekend that's kicked off by Black Friday — which some believe is named for the day when retailers' ledgers traditionally went from being "in the red" to a profit "in the black" — may not stack up the way it used to. But it's important to retailers and is expected to produce fiscal winners and losers in what has been a tough year for some chains that use a significant amount of real estate. And the results could signal whether the chains will maintain, upgrade or expand their property holdings.
With Thanksgiving falling later than last year, compressing the period between that day and Christmas, many Americans have already kicked off their holiday shopping, according to Mucka and several retail analysts. But that doesn't mean people won't be out in force for the four-day Thanksgiving weekend, providing a bellwether for consumer confidence going into the new year. The question is where they will go to buy goods.
For Walmart, the past several years involved upping its game at some stores. It's spending millions of dollars across the country at certain Supercenter locations to roll out a redesigned format that includes furniture and decor prominently displayed as well as apparel showcased on mannequins. The goal is partly to appeal to higher-income shoppers who have migrated to Walmart for items like groceries.
Mucka runs one of those flagships, a 148,000-square-foot-plus store at 1 Teterboro Landing Drive in Teterboro, New Jersey, where executives will watch to determine the effects the property improvements may have on the bottom line.
Expecting record crowds
Across the industry, a record 183.4 million people plan to shop in store and online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday this year, according to the National Retail Federation, up from the prior record of 182 million in 2023 and 18.1 million people more than five years ago in 2019. This year roughly two-thirds, or 65%, of Black Friday shoppers expect to specifically shop in stores that day, according to the organization.
In its Black Friday report, Coresight Research offered its own insight into why the period is still important.
"Black Friday remains a crucial part of retailers’ plans as many shoppers anticipate that the year’s best deals will occur during the shopping holiday," the retail data firm said. "On Black Friday, consumers make major purchases in categories such as electronics, appliances and gifts, taking advantage of substantial discounts and leading to a surge in spending."
But financially strained Americans remain cautious about opening their wallets, hunting for bargains and forgoing some discretionary spending, a number of retail chief executives said in their reporting of third-quarter earnings.
That doesn't bode well for every chain, according to Neil Saunders, a retail analyst and managing director at analytics firm GlobalData.
"Overall, this will be a solid Black Friday for both online and for physical stores," Saunders said in an email to CoStar News. "There will be growth over last year, not least because consumers are extremely receptive to bargains and are seeking ways to make their budgets stretch further. That said, the pace of growth will be relatively modest, and consumers are being very discerning as to what they buy and where they spend their money. This means not all retailers will see gains; there will be a patchwork of winners and losers, and some retailers might find their stores quiet on the day."
The vulnerable
Generally speaking, discounters such as Walmart and off-price chains like T.J.Maxx have posted sales gains this year, and a number of luxury retailers have done well. The most vulnerable sector this holiday weekend are chains that traditionally cater to middle-income Americans, such as department stores, according to Coresight.
"As shoppers are set to spend selectively during Black Friday 2024, we expect middle-ground retailers to remain challenged," Coresight said. "Department stores may be one such sector; major companies in this space include Macy’s and Kohl’s, both of which have recently reported falling sales."
The day before it reported its third-quarter earnings this week, Kohl's said its CEO, Tom Kingsbury, will step down in January. He will be succeeded by Ashley Buchanan, the current CEO of craft store chain Michaels. On Tuesday, Kohl's reported its net sales dropped 8.8% and comparable sales were down 9.3% in the quarter ended Nov. 2.
"This has been an abysmal quarter for Kohl’s," Saunders said in a note on the retailer's financial results. "With numbers like these it is little wonder that CEO Tom Kingsbury has opted to step down. ... The department store chain has essentially been stuck in reverse gear for almost three years, with 10 consecutive quarters of negative sales numbers."
Kohl's didn't immediately respond to an email from CoStar News seeking a comment on Saunders' remarks.
But on the chain's earnings call, Kingsbury told Wall Street analysts that the company is taking steps to drive sales going into the holidays. That includes boosting its offerings of petite women's apparel and bringing back fine jewelry to 200 stores, according to Kingsbury. He also said the Babies R Us store-in-store sites that recently launched at 200 Kohl's stores are performing well, bringing in younger shoppers.
"Kohl's is known for providing great holiday value, and this year will be no different," Kingsbury said. "We will continue to establish ourselves as a key gifting destination with an expanded selection of products across apparel, such as sweaters, fleece and holiday coat fitting; stocking stuffers and toys at compelling price points; Sephora gift sets; box jewelry; and cold weather bedding from brands like Cuddl Duds."
Kohl's officials were asked if the company is prepared to close some stores.
"We've always talked a lot about the health of our store base," Chief Financial Officer Jill Timm said. "With that said, we're always evaluating our fleet to optimize it. ... But I would definitely say there are places we'll look at. But over 90% of our stores are still four-wall cash positive. So it's a difficult financial decision to make. But obviously on the periphery ... there's going to be some opportunities for us to address those underperformers, which we will do."
Macy's — parent of its namesake chain as well as Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury, and sponsor of the high-profile Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York — on Monday posted preliminary third-quarter results. Net sales overall for its three chains dropped 2.4% to $4.7 billion. Comparable sales were down 1.3% for its owned and licensed businesses, including merchandise the retailer owns and for goods from brands that pay to get shelf space in its stores.
Upscale chains Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury both posted positive comparable sales. But the Macy's banner itself saw comparable sales dip 2.2% on an owned-plus-licensed basis. Macy's is in the process of downsizing its store fleet — shuttering 150 underperforming locations — and the 50 high-performing stores that it is focusing on saw their third consecutive quarter of comparable sales growth, up 1.9%, according to company officials.
Target stumbles
Apart from department stores, even the discounter Target has seen sluggish sales this year. Last week it reported a flat third quarter, with total revenue of $25.7 billion, just 1.1% higher than last year. Comparable sales increased 0.3%.
Target was once one of the major beneficiaries of Black Friday, but it remains to be seen how it fares. The company ended the quarter with 1,928 stores, up 22 locations from the 1,956 stores it had in February.
"The three traditional leaders in holiday shopping are Amazon, Walmart and Target, and this year is set to be no exception — over 40% of shoppers who intend to make Black Friday purchases reported plans to shop at each of these retailers," according to Coresight.
All three of those retailers held special sales in advance of Black Friday — Amazon’s Big Deal Days, Target’s Target Circle Week and Walmart’s Holiday Deals event, with those offerings resonating with consumers and pulling forward some holiday spending, according to Coresight. But there may be a price to pay later for the deals some retailers are offering now, Coresight said.
"While incentives such the cash rewards provided by Kohl’s and the extended discounts offered by retailers such as Target and Walmart may cater to budget-conscious shoppers, they will also likely put pressure on these retailers’ margins," Coresight added. "On the other hand, department stores remain relatively behind in offering attractive promotions and holiday assortments — if department stores do not match the timing and intensity of these deals, they may fall behind in terms of both foot traffic and online engagement."
Walmart, the biggest U.S. retailer by revenue, last week posted better third-quarter results than Target. Its consolidated revenue was $169.6 billion, up 5.5%. Comparable U.S. sales rose 5.3%. Company officials voiced optimism about the holidays but also said consumers are still pinching pennies.
Burlington's take
Off-price retailer Burlington Stores was upbeat about the holiday during its third-quarter earnings call Tuesday. The off-price sector, with chains such as Marshalls and T.J.Maxx, have been somewhat insulated from consumer-spending dips because of the bargains it offers shoppers. Burlington reported it will end the year with 101 net new stores, after factoring in 15 store closings.
"We believe that we are well positioned as we enter the key holiday selling period in Q4," CEO Michael O'Sullivan said on Burlington's earnings call, referring to the fourth quarter. "As we have discussed before, in general we believe that uncertainty and disruption tend to be good for off-price versus other forms of retail."
Dick's Sporting Goods as well as Abercrombie & Fitch reported earnings Tuesday, and they were bullish about the holiday season. Dick's has 864 stores, five less than a year ago. Abercrombie operates roughly 770 of its namesake and Hollister stores.
Coresight expects Black Friday sales to rise 2% year over year in 2024, generating $39.7 billion in retail sales. That would reflect moderate growth compared to 2023, when Black Friday sales increased 2.5% year over year, according to Coresight, which it attributed to consumers shopping earlier because Thanksgiving falls so late in the month.
"Retailers that perform badly over Black Friday will have an issue," said Saunders, the analyst with GlobalData. "They will have too much inventory, and they will have missed sales targets. As this is a shortened selling season there might be a frenzy of activity as retailers look to sell down excess inventory."