A World Series between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies, set to start Friday in Texas, also is a matchup of two of the country’s most important commercial real estate markets.
Those baseball teams play in the fourth- and sixth-largest U.S. cities, located along key shipping ports, and amid thriving warehouse and apartment demand, according to CoStar data.
Houston and Philadelphia also are among many major office hubs trying to regain their footing 2 ½ years into the pandemic.
Those property markets also face uncertainty, and slowing sales across asset types, as part of a national trend because of rising interest rates, inflation and worries about a recession.
Like their baseball teams, the cities also have major differences, including the way residents get around. Houston is sprawling, fast growing and mostly traversed by car. Philadelphia takes up a much smaller land area, making it navigable by foot and public transit.
The urban layouts differ in part because of the much longer history of the East Coast city, which was chartered in 1701 and later served as an early U.S. capital from 1790 to 1800, far before the arrival of automobiles.
The Sun Belt behemoth wasn’t even formed until 1836, six decades after the Declaration of Independence was adopted in Philadelphia in 1776. Texas didn’t become a state until 1845.
Here is a scouting report on the cities playing in the Fall Classic and their real estate markets:
Population
Philadelphia: As of mid-2021, the city’s population was almost 1.58 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Houston: There were almost 2.29 million residents as of mid-2021.
Density
Philadelphia: The city covers just over 134 square miles, less than a quarter of Houston’s total area. Philadelphia’s population per square mile is far greater: 11,937, according to census data. The city is No. 8 in a walkability ranking by Walk Score, a Redfin subsidiary.
Houston: Its area is more than 640 square miles, according to census data, with a population per square mile of about 3,598. Houston ranks 24th on Walk Score’s list of the most walkable U.S. cities.
Tallest Building
Philadelphia: Comcast Technology Center is 1,112 feet tall. The 60-story office tower at 1800 Arch St. opened in 2018.
Houston: JPMorgan Chase Tower is 1,002 feet tall. The 75-story office tower at 600 Travis St., formerly known as Texas Technology Center, opened in 1982.
Fortune 500 Headquarters
Philadelphia: Just two companies based in the city made the 2022 list of largest U.S. corporations: Comcast and Aramark.
Houston: The energy industry plays a major role in Houston’s 10 big global headquarters. In order of size, those companies are Phillips 66, Sysco, ConocoPhillips, Plains GP Holdings, Enterprise Products Partners, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NRG Energy, Occidental Petroleum, Baker Hughes and EOG Resources.
Zoning Quirks
Philadelphia: An unwritten rule prevented any building from rising above the William Penn statue atop City Hall, or 548 feet tall, until architect Helmut Jahn’s two-tower Liberty Place project was approved in the 1980s. One Liberty Place, opened in 1987, rose to 945 feet and remained the tallest point in Philadelphia’s modernized skyline for 21 years. It is now the city’s third-tallest tower.
Houston: It is the largest U.S. city with no zoning regulations, sometimes leading to juxtapositions such as large commercial buildings alongside single-family homes. Several times, residents have voted against proposals to create zoning rules based on land use.
Industrial
Philadelphia: The region is a top shipping port because of its strategic location between New York and Washington, D.C. There are 40 million households within a four-hour truck drive, the most of any market in the country, according to CoStar research. Leasing over the past month has been 60% above pre-pandemic levels, leaving overall vacancy at a historically tight 4.7%. There is 25.6 million square feet of warehouse space under construction, more than triple pre-COVID levels, according to CoStar. That could push down rent growth, which has been 12.2% over the past year.
Houston: Population growth, proximity to a major port and large manufacturing and petrochemical industries all contribute to the large industrial real estate market. There has been 30.7 million square feet more space leased than vacated over the past year, the top absorption of any major market in the nation, according to CoStar research. Walmart and Macy’s are among companies that have signed big leases recently. With lower barriers to entry, Houston’s rent growth often trails the broader U.S. market, including over the past 12 months: 3.8%, compared with 11.4% nationally during a boom time. Rent growth and a 5.5% overall vacancy rate will be tested by 55 million square feet of new space coming online in late 2022 and 2023, according to CoStar.
Office
Philadelphia: Like most large cities and their suburbs, Philadelphia is digging out from the effects of the health crisis on office demand, as many companies allow remote work. Landlords have a combined 10.3% vacancy and just 0.5% rent growth in the past year, according to CoStar research. Although leasing has begun rebounding from COVID lows, volume remains 15% below the three-year average before the pandemic, according to CoStar. There has been 1.1 million more square feet vacated than leased over the past year. Towers in the city are burdened by slow population gains and a city wage tax, but expansion in the life science sector is a boost.
Houston: Despite some signs of recovery, the 18.9% overall vacancy is highest among major markets nationally, according to CoStar research. Another 2.5% of the supply is available for sublease. Rent growth is just 0.4% over the past year, and there is another 5.1 million square feet under construction, further testing a market that relies heavily on the oil industry. Canadian pipeline company Enbridge earlier this year subleased about 293,000 square feet of engineering and construction firm McDermott International’s space in the Energy Corridor. That is less than half the space Enbridge previously occupied in the Galleria, an example of downsizing seen in the region and throughout the country since the start of the pandemic in early 2020. McDermott shed more than half its space in the deal.
Multifamily
Philadelphia: After 12-month rent growth peaked at 10% in late 2021, it has fallen to 4.9% amid slowing demand and a wave of ongoing construction, according to CoStar research. Absorption has slowed to 3,508 units over the past year, but 4.5% vacancy remains near the all-time low. There will be an average 2,200 units completed per quarter in late 2022 and 2023, a 45% increase compared with the previous two years.
Houston: Vacancy has remained near a seven-year low at 8.5%, but 24,000 units under construction will strain demand, according to CoStar research. Rent growth has slowed to 3.6% over the past year, down from 9.4% a few quarters earlier. There have been 8,400 units absorbed in the past year, among the highest in the country, as Sun Belt markets continue to set the pace in residential growth.