Editor's note: Some sources for this story were interviewed before the Feb. 6 earthquakes.
Turkey is reeling after two massive earthquakes hit the region just over a week ago.
The devastating 7.8- and 7.5-magnitude earthquakes that hit southeastern Turkey near Syria on Feb. 6 have killed more than 36,000 people, and the death toll continues to rise.
The earthquakes hit predominantly residential, non-tourist areas of Turkey, but came at a time when the country's hotel industry appeared to be fully recovered from the global pandemic.
Before the earthquakes, the biggest disruptor to Turkey's tourism demand was Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the lack of inbound Russian tourists who have historically led the country's international visitor demographics. For some time, Russia was Turkey’s largest feeder market for tourism.
Mehmet Önkal, partner at business advisory BDO Tourism Consultancy Office, said Turkey will continue to attract guests — even if, as a result of the earthquake, hotels do not outperform 2022 levels, which he said were “excellent.”
He said hotels in cities not too far from the disaster zone — in Mediterranean destinations such as Antalya and Merson, and those close to the sea such as Adana — are being used to house homeless survivors of the tragedy.
“Now is the shoulder season. Some hotels were closed. It's still a question what will happen to [the homeless] when the high season starts in mid-May. We are still discussing that,” he said.
In 2022, Turkey welcomed 51.3 million foreign visitors, which was only slightly lower than the record 51.8 million tourists welcomed in 2019. This figure put the country in third place in the list of the world's largest tourism markets, according to the December report from Turkey’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism.
In monetary terms, the tourism levels have been even more encouraging. Last year, Turkey took in a record $46.3 billion in tourism revenue, a 19% increase compared to 2019.
In 2022, the global tourism industry recovered by only 65%, but Turkey has almost reached its pre-COVID-19 figures, the ministry said, adding that this is only the beginning of strong growth in the sector. Under a new five-year, tourism development plan, Turkey plans to welcome 90 million tourists per year and generate an annual revenue greater than $100 billion by 2028.
Thanks to vaccination programs and the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, many markets including Turkey continued to recover in 2022, with hotel revenue per available room at or above 2019 levels across the board, said Eric Viale, IHG Hotels & Resorts' managing director for Southern Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia.
“This trend was apparent in Turkey in 2022, especially with inbound international travel to Antalya and Istanbul,” Viale said. “Our hotels closed out the year with high occupancy rates, celebrating a strong recovery following recent global challenges.”
Eren Turan, sales manager at Liberty Lara in Antalya, which is part of Liberty Hotels Group, said business flourished in 2022.
“Not only for [my hotels] but for the entire Turkey tourism sector,” he said, adding he agreed that the country was ahead of the curve in terms of post-pandemic recovery.
While international travelers might be facing high inflation and soaring energy costs at home, Turkey is increasingly regarded as an affordable vacation destination. The ongoing coverage of the earthquakes' aftermath could dampen global traveler perception for the rest of 2023, however.
One key factor behind Turkey’s rise in popularity with global travelers is the exchange rate for its currency, the Turkish lira. The value of the lira decreased by 44% in 2021 and further depreciated by 29% amid controversial economic reforms announced by the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
“Turkey has weathered the fallout of the global pandemic better than Eurozone and other global competitors, which makes Turkey an attractive and safe tourism destination,” Turan said prior to the earthquakes.
In 2022, average occupancy of Turkish hotels was 66.7%, falling only slightly short of the 67.1% recorded in 2019, according to data from STR, CoStar’s hotel analytics firm. Turkey's hotel average daily rate reached $122.09 in 2022, which was a 42.3% increase from 2019. Nationwide, hotel RevPAR reached $81.44 in Turkey in 2022.
“2022 brought a sense of normality back to the Turkey hotel industry with seasonal hotels experiencing high demand from leisure guests and business hotels seeing a strong [meetings, incentives, conventions and expositions] performance. High occupancy rates allowed hotels to mitigate local inflation challenges and deliver great results,” Viale said.
BDO's Önkal said Turkey’s principal tourism markets of Istanbul and the Aegean Coast — which include such sun-and-sand destinations as Bodrum, Izmir and Marmaris — are far from the area affected by the earthquake.
“Istanbul had more than 15 million visitors in 2022, and that will continue. And why not go to Bodrum and that coast? It has wonderful, first-class, luxury hotels,” he said.
He did add some guests might be worried about coming to Turkey but that such disasters can occur in many places.
“A big earthquake is expected for Istanbul. Some say in 10 years, others 25, yet others 40,” he said.
Missing Moscow
The Turkish hospitality industry entered its 2022 high season with moderate expectations, anticipating an absence of Russian guests following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last February.
“There was a Russian panic. We could not foresee how this war would develop, and we didn’t expect tourists from other markets to fill the gaps left by a lack of Russians and Ukrainians,” said Firuz Bağlıkaya, president of the Association of Turkish Travel Agencies.
Russia historically has been the No. 1 demand market for Turkey’s hotels, while Ukraine was among its top five markets.
Throughout 2022, visitors from European and Middle Eastern countries made up the difference, Bağlıkaya said, citing a 27% rise in the number of visitors from the United Kingdom.
Alexan Mkrtchyan, president of the Alliance of Russian Travel Agencies, said a lack of flights, especially from airports close to Ukraine, has increased airfares.
In 2021, the average price of a flight ticket to Turkey was between 170 euros ($182) and 200 euros, while in May 2022, it reached 350 euros.
“In the first months of the year, sales of trips to Turkey went well, but after the start of [the war], they plummeted,” he said. “In August-September, demand recovered, but after the announcement of partial mobilization in Russia, travel agencies again experienced a slump in sales.”
Mkrtchyan added the high number of Russian visitors to Turkey does not necessarily benefit hoteliers since many Russians used the country’s airports as a transit point for trips to Europe and other countries following the interruption of many direct flights.
He also said that “a large portion of Russians … preferred to rent apartments, instead of staying in hotels.”
Hotel News Now News Editor, EMEA, Terence Baker contributed to this story.