Commercial property prices across the U.S. Northeast and Midwest in recent months mostly outperformed the West and South, two regions long favored by investors.
Price gains still outweighed losses across the four major property types of office, multifamily, retail and industrial in the second quarter, according to CoStar Group’s Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices. The Northeast, including cities such as Philadelphia, New York and Boston, posted gains across those real estate types, based on the indices tracking when a previously sold property trades again in a process called a repeat sale.
The disparity in quarterly regional pricing reflects faster gains in the past 15 years in the West and South — and even more so following the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the latest monthly CCRSI findings. Now they are cooling more quickly than the other regions from their heights.
“Office and multifamily have been the worst-performing property types of the four major asset classes, and this is even more pronounced throughout Sun Belt markets. Essentially, the greater the post-COVID boom, the more substantial the current pullback,” Chad Littell, national director of U.S. capital markets analytics for CoStar, said in the report.
Here’s a look at CCRSI second-quarter results for the four largest U.S. regions as tracked by CoStar:
West
The West trailed other regions with two of four property types losing value. Compared to the first quarter, the West’s office index shaved 1.8% of its value, and the industrial index dropped 1.9%. Though prices rose 0.5% in the retail index and 0.9% for the multifamily index, the gains were relatively modest compared to other regions.
When comparing June prices to a year earlier, three of four property types were negative. Multifamily gave back 6.6%, while office fell 5.1%, and industrial lost 3.4% of value. The retail index was the only property type in the region to boast gains in the second quarter at 5% compared to the year-earlier quarter.
South
The South composite index’s quarterly performance gains were led by industrial at 2.1% and multifamily at 1.4% compared to the first quarter. The South office index lost 1.9%, while retail gave up 0.3% of value compared to the prior quarter.
The year-over-year picture varied slightly in the South. The industrial index gained 2.9%, and the retail index grew 1.8% compared to the second quarter of 2023. The South office index discarded 6.1%, and multifamily dropped 1.7% through the 12 months ended in June.
Northeast
Compared to mixed quarterly pricing performance in the Sun Belt, all Northeast property types gained in the second quarter. With a 2.5% gain, the multifamily index outperformed the Northeast industrial index's climb of 0.9% compared to the first quarter. The office index at a 0.8% increase bested the retail index's 0.3% price growth over the prior quarter.
Compared to the second quarter a year ago, the multifamily index gained 8% and led outperformed the office index, which rose 2.8% in the 12 months ended in June. The industrial index was flat compared to the year prior, while the retail index cast off 0.1% of value.
Midwest
The Midwest picked up after several years of trailing high-growth markets. Compared to the first quarter, the Midwest’s quarterly price gains were consistent, with the office and retail index each gaining 2%, while the multifamily index climbed 1.8% higher. The industrial index was the lone property type to shed value in the quarter, giving back 0.4% in June.
On a year-over-year basis, the industrial index led all property types and regions with a 9% gain in the 12 months ended in June. The retail index increased 3.1%, followed by the multifamily index's gain of 0.7%. The office index was in the red, losing 6.4% from the prior year.
The latest CCRSI report was based on 1,068 sale pairs in June and 308,048 repeat sales since 1996.