The experience of sipping a fine Scottish whisky at a swanky hotel bar isn't going anywhere amid concerns over Trump administration tariffs. It just may become more expensive — a price hotel patrons who appreciate the finer things in life may have no problem supporting.
The current round of tariffs is set to hike prices on retail goods, raw materials used in manufacturing, food-and-beverage items and more. How severely U.S. tariffs will affect the United Kingdom hotel industry remains to be seen, but whisky may be less of a worry than some first thought.
The European Union received a 20% tariff on its exports to the U.S., while the U.K. escaped with just a 10% tariff.
However, whisky, or Scotch, uniquely from Scotland, is a mainstay on U.S. hotel bar shelves and its tariff story is a little different.
In 2019 during his first term as president, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on single-malt whisky, which the BBC calculated cost the industry £600 million ($765.4 million) in that tariff’s first 18 months.
That tariff was due to end in 2026, according to the Scotch Whisky Association. In 2023, Scotland exported 132 million bottles to the U.S.
In March, the EU announced a 50% tariff on U.S. whiskey and bourbon, but later canceled that proposal, according to Bloomberg.
Piers Schmidt, founder of business advisory Luxury Branding, wants to allay some worries that these tariffs will keep liquid sunshine off U.S. bar menus.
He said previous tariffs on single-malt whisky have created ripples but not waves. It's likely the same would happen under any new U.S. tariff policy as restaurants and bars won't drop Scotch from their spirit menus.
“The authenticity and provenance of Scottish single malts make them effectively tariff-resistant in demand terms. Indeed, a Four Seasons or Langham bar without a carefully curated selection of Highland and Islay expressions would be unthinkable, irrespective of trade politics,” he said. “Single-malt Scotch is not merely a luxury good; it’s a cultural ambassador that defies political boundaries. American connoisseurs aren’t suddenly shifting to bourbon because Macallan becomes marginally pricier. The experience is simply non-substitutable.”
Tariff costs on top of rising expenses for hoteliers
The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics reported there is not much of a gap between imports and exports between the two countries.
The U.S. is the U.K.'s second-largest import partner behind Germany, and the U.S. is the U.K.'s largest export partner.
In full-year 2023, “the U.K. imported £57.9 billion ($74.6 billion) of goods from the U.S., which accounted for 10% of all goods imports. ... There were £60.4 billion of goods exports to the U.S., making it our largest export partner, accounting for 15.3% of all goods exports,” according to a January 2025 report from the agency.
Economists have raised their odds of a recession in recent weeks and predict consumers could tighten their spending, potentially cutting back on travel.
For hotels in the middle and lower ends of the segments, tariffs could be another pain point on top of escalating pricing, the cost-of-living crisis and other demands on disposable income.
Adam Flint, chair of the Bristol Hotels Association and general manager of the 161-room DoubleTree by Hilton Bristol City Center, said U.S. tariffs have added further pressure and concern for the hospitality industry. But he added the increases of the U.K. National Living Wage and employer National Insurance contributions might be more of a short-term headache.
“As an industry, we rely heavily on goods and services from a variety of countries for hotels to operate and develop. Whilst it is only a recent introduction and we might have not felt the uplifts, the sector is very mindful of how [U.S. tariffs] might impact us,” he said. “There is the risk of price inflation for goods and services through increased import costs, and consumers' disposable income may be negatively impacted, resulting in decreased spending on travel and tourism. This could lead to fewer hotel bookings and reduced revenue for hotels.”
Flint added it is essential hoteliers are strategic in their approach to combat tariffs through attractive and affordable offers, while controlling costs.
Service tariffs are not part of the current round of Trump Administration moves, but some worry tariffs overall could create a trickle-down effect on service providers.
“In 2023, the U.K. imported £57.4 billion of services from the U.S. and exported £126.3 billion. This accounted for 19.5% of all service imports and 27% of all service exports, making the U.S. our largest trading partner for both imports and exports of services,” according to the U.K. Office for National Statistics.
Insulation at the high end
Of course, some hotel and travel segments — especially at the higher end — might be insulated from economic uncertainty and hesitant consumers. The U.K.’s luxury hotel market leans heavily on demand from U.S. travelers, but so far, this demographic hasn't cut back on their vacations.
“A few percentage points in tariffs or exchange rate fluctuations rarely deter guests from frequenting five-star establishments in Mayfair or the Scottish Highlands. They seek experiences beyond mundane financial considerations,” Schmidt said.
Even though the luxury hotel segment often floats above political turbulence, it is never entirely immune, Schmidt said.
“That said, American luxury travelers, especially from the affluent Northeast and West Coast corridors, typically treat politics as background noise rather than a reason to alter their travel plans. Trump’s second coming, however provocative, will probably be viewed by this group as something to manage rather than avoid,” he said.
Schmidt said that history has shown the ultra-luxury travel segment to be remarkably resilient through economic and political headwinds.
“Luxury is fundamentally driven by perception and desire rather than necessity, so tariffs rarely dissuade truly affluent travelers whose motivation is anchored in experience, exclusivity and escapism," he said. "All the same, perception is vital. Luxury hospitality thrives on confidence. Escalating tit-for-tat tariffs risk subtly eroding brand Britain’s premium appeal if the country is perceived as isolated or less welcoming."
Tariffs or not, the U.K.'s luxury hotel segment should be just fine, Schmidt said.
“Moving forward, expect U.K. luxury properties to double down on creating bespoke, irreplaceable experiences that justify premium pricing, transcending any trade turbulence. Ultimately, luxury’s value lies in moments and memories that no tariff can measure,” Schmidt added.
Grinding globalization
Some consider the U.S. tariffs to be the death knell of globalization.
“Global linkages have been on a downward trend in the 2020s, with a stronger decline since 2022. The year 2006 was globalization’s height, after which happened the Great Financial Crisis,” said Alexander Börsch, chief economist and head of research at Deloitte Germany, during the International Hotel Investment Forum EMEA on March 31 in Berlin.
“Deteriorating geopolitical alignment is driving deglobalization,” he added. “There are 2,065 country pairs with sanctions in place, and there has been a 4% decline in agreement in United Nations voting.”
Luigi Caruso, senior managing director at Blackstone and its chief operating officer for real estate in Europe, provided yet another reason that might see Trump seething at trading disparities.
“The weaker [U.S.] dollar will not be positive here in Europe,” he said, adding his investment strategy remains in acquisitions where capital expenditure can be added to boost value.