Login

A World Series commercial real estate showdown

New York and Los Angeles markets step up to the plate
(Illustration: Jelena Schulz/CoStar; Getty Images)
(Illustration: Jelena Schulz/CoStar; Getty Images)

It's late October, the time when sports fans turn to baseball's World Series. This year the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers square off in the fall classic.

But the series doesn't just feature two of baseball's powerhouses. It spotlights the nation's biggest commercial real estate markets.

The CoStar Analytics team stepped up to the plate to size up the markets to determine who has the commercial property edge.

Here are the scorecards:

Multifamily

New York: The New York apartment market continues to be defined by many renters competing for a limited number of units. The demand for housing and the glacial pace of adding supply has contributed to the tightest vacancy rate in the nation. New York City's diverse economy and its ability to add 76,000 jobs over the past year, along with some of the most expensive housing prices in the U.S., have recently boosted renter demand. With demand improving and vacancy levels tight, rent growth in New York keeps outperforming the U.S. average.

Los Angeles: Los Angeles apartment market conditions have seen modest improvements in 2024. Renter demand steadily improved this year, and the third quarter saw the best demand in several years. That being said, the market vacancy of 5% has held steady for over a year. Also, stronger recent renter activity compared to 2022 and 2023 still represents among the most modest renter demand, relative to market size, recently seen among major U.S. metropolitan areas. Relative economic softness, particularly job losses in the entertainment and tech sectors, and outmigration by residents in recent years continue to weigh on overall conditions. However, the market has had the saving grace of one of the most measured completion schedules in the nation, with supply increasing by only 0.8% during the past 12 months, about a quarter of the supply growth seen nationally.

Advantage: New York

Office

New York: With space markets recently hitting bottom and leasing activity much improved compared to the prior year, the New York office market is showing signs of stability. Among new deals sized above 10,000 square feet, leasing has improved by 25% compared to a year ago through the first three quarters of 2024. If this pace of leasing continues, it would mark the largest annual new leasing total since 2019. Though asking rents have risen slightly over the past year, the sheer amount of available space continues to give tenants leverage at the negotiating table, and they are clearly taking advantage of the situation.

Los Angeles: Los Angeles office market conditions continue to erode in late 2024. Vacancy stands at 16.3%, the highest level in decades. The rise in vacancy is about 170 basis points above the rise witnessed nationally. A higher proportion of leases executed pre-pandemic in the market have expired compared to most U.S. markets, resulting in more adverse impacts from the trend seen nationally of many firms downsizing, often utilizing hybrid work strategies. Additionally, the area's elevated unemployment rate and recent job losses in the entertainment and tech sectors, crucial office tenancies, have restrained leasing activity. The outlook for Los Angeles' office market is for vacancy to rise even further, reaching 18% in several years.

Advantage: New York

Retail

New York: The New York retail market continues to be boosted by steady levels of demand and limited new supply, which have helped retail availability creep down over the past three years. This is most evident when observing demand, which has been positive for six consecutive quarters and now totals 1.9 million square feet over the past 12 months. The performance of urban retail spaces arguably defines New York's retail market, and retailers of all types across New York City benefit from rising foot traffic. According to city officials, about 62 million people visited the Big Apple in 2023, and 64.5 million visitors are anticipated by year-end.

Los Angeles: The Los Angeles retail market continues to witness the softest demand formation among major U.S. markets in the fourth quarter. With 1.9 million more square feet vacated than moved into over the past 12 months, the demand is among the weakest among major U.S. metropolitan areas. The market has had to grapple with multiple headwinds. Population losses in recent years and, more recently, meager population gains have stymied household formation. Softer economic fundamentals than most U.S. metropolitan areas and elevated housing costs have left residents less confident in their financial positions. Limited retail space demand has resulted in some of the weakest rent growth nationally. Rents across the market are down by 0.4% during the past 12 months, trailing the gains of 2.1% seen nationally.

Advantage: New York

Industrial

New York: New York's industrial market continues to grapple with moderating demand amid a wave of newly completed but mostly available speculative projects. Massive supply additions remain a theme, with nearly 12.7 million square feet of new construction completed in 2023 and a record-high 13.3 million square feet projected to be done by the end of this year. While the future of tenant demand is not a concern, it should be noted how much space has been added to the market in a short time. The availability rate in New York has risen from 5.7%, measured at the start of 2022, to the current rate of 9.6%. The continued imbalance between supply and demand has caused rent growth to decelerate from a peak of 11% year-over-year growth reached in mid-2022 to the rate of 2.9%

Los Angeles: The industrial market in Los Angeles is currently the weakest in the nation. Tenant occupancy has contracted by 30 million square feet, or 3% of inventory, over the past two and a half years. Occupancy has fallen below pre-pandemic levels as U.S. businesses dialed back inventories in 2023 and dealt with inflation. Imports to Southern California ports came in below peak levels reached in 2021-22 until the summer of 2024. Some speculatively developed buildings remain unleased amid the softer tenant demand conditions. As a result of moderate supply growth and weaker demand, vacancy has increased to 5.7% from an all-time low of 1.7%. Asking rents are falling quickly, but tenants still face higher rents upon lease expiration due to rapid increases in market rates up until a few years ago.

Advantage: New York

Final Tally:

Winner: New York wins every major property type.