HENDERSONVILLE,
Overall United States
Overall in the U.S., Christmas day (25 December) RevPAR has generally run between US$27 to US$33, regardless if it landed on a weekday or weekend. This occurred because of low occupancy levels those days. However, the day immediately following Christmas day for all five years showed material increases in occupancies (5- to 18-point increases). The only exception occurred when the day following Christmas was a Sunday. After the initial bump in occupancy, the remainder of the days in the week continued to show respectable growth until New Year’s Day. Sharp occupancy and ADR spikes hit every year in the total U.S. for New Year’s Eve day, regardless of which day New Year’s Eve occurred.
To illustrate how other major U.S. markets perform during the same weeks, a random selection of four markets historical days’ performances were also reviewed:
New York, New York
Like the overall U.S. market, the New York City market performs strongly after Christmas. Over the last five years, occupancy for the six days following Christmas has increased anywhere between 15 percent and 78 percent from the actual Christmas day performance. There has been consistent occupancy growth from 30 December to 31 December ranging from 4 percent to 16 percent. New Year’s Day historically has taken a sharp decline in occupancy ranging from 21 percent to 33 percent from the highs of 31 December. From 30 December to 31 December, ADRs ranged from an 11- to 19-percent growth rate (US$22 to US$36).
Dallas, Texas
Although occupancies of the days preceding and following Christmas have generally ranged in the 20s and 30s, there has typically been a strong lift from 30 December to 31 December, ranging from a 51- to 81-percent increase. The only exception to this was in 2006, when New Year’s Eve fell on a Sunday. During that year, there was a 17-percent increase, which was still robust, but much lower than when New Year’s Eve falls on other days of the week. ADR increases and decreases were erratic for all five years on the days following Christmas until 30 December.
In four of the five years reviewed, there was a sharp decline in occupancy of 20 percent to 51 percent from 31 December to New Year’s Day. However from 31 December 2003 to 1 January 2004, occupancy remained nearly flat. In all five years, ADR increased from 30 December to 31 December by 19 percent to 27 percent. However, the typical sharp decline of between 6 percent and 21 percent ADR loss on 1 January did not occur on 1 January 2004 (Thursday), when ADR remained flat.
Phoenix, Arizona
Christmas in Phoenix has typically demonstrated a mid-30s to mid-40s occupancy market that has risen to the mid-50s to mid-60s on the six days following Christmas. Daily ADR changes during this period have typically been flat to increases up to 4 percent.
Over the last five years, occupancy has increased 8 percent to 27 percent from 30 December to 31 December. ADR increases have ranged from 3 percent to 11 percent for this period. As with many markets, occupancy declined sharply on New Year’s Day, typically from between 15 percent and 26 percent. However, on 1 January 2004 (Thursday), occupancy only declined 8 percent. ADR activity on New Year’s Day has been somewhat inconsistent. On New Year’s Day in 2005 (Saturday) and 2007 (Monday), ADRs remained basically flat compared to the previous day. But other years reported swings ranging from a 2-percent decline (Tuesday) to a 6-percent increase (Sunday).
San Francisco-San Mateo, California
Christmas in San Francisco reported occupancies in the 40s over the past four years. The following days’ occupancies have typically increased modestly, with healthy increases on 31 December. However, in 2003, occupancy increased almost 50 percent on the day following Christmas (Friday). In 2007, Christmas landed on a Tuesday. However, the market reported daily occupancy gains of 12 percent to 24 percent until the following Friday. San Francisco-San Mateo reported sharp increases in both occupancy and ADR from 30 December to 31 December regardless on which day New Year’s Eve fell. Occupancy jumped anywhere from 22 percent to 58 percent, but declined the following day between 42 percent and 52 percent.
Between the Sunday before (or on) Christmas until the Saturday after (or on) New Year’s Day, ADR in the San Francisco-San Mateo market remained relatively similar each year. Variances during this two-week period between the highest versus the lowest ADR ranged approximately 15 percent. The only exceptions were New Year’s Eve and in 2005/2006, when Christmas landed on a Sunday (25-percent variance between its lowest and highest rates). Between 30 December and 31 December, ADR jumped anywhere between 21 percent and 30 percent, but from 31 December to 1 January, it fell 16 percent to 28 percent.
The 2008/2009 season’s Christmas and New Year’s Day will fall on a Thursday. As noted by STR’s Weekly Hotel Review for the week of 7-13 December, total U.S. RevPAR has only declined by 5.8 percent compared to prior year’s results. This hopeful glimmer of moderating declines in industry performance may be an initial sign, not of recovery, but a slowing down of huge reductions of prior-year performance.