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Chicago’s Progressive New Mayor Faces Key Real Estate Issues

Brandon Johnson Wins Runoff Election Over Paul Vallas, Who Was Widely Supported by Business Community
Brandon Johnson speaks Tuesday after winning a runoff election to become Chicago’s next mayor. (Getty Images)
Brandon Johnson speaks Tuesday after winning a runoff election to become Chicago’s next mayor. (Getty Images)
CoStar News
April 5, 2023 | 7:03 P.M.

Chicago’s newly elected mayor, the progressive Brandon Johnson, was largely opposed by the city’s business community. He now faces a full plate of real estate challenges after the city has for years dealt with the effects of COVID-19 and worries about crime, taxes and finances.

Johnson, a former teacher who was backed by the Chicago Teachers Union, on Tuesday defeated former Chicago Public Schools leader Paul Vallas in a runoff election.

Those two Democratic candidates emerged from a general election in February that knocked Mayor Lori Lightfoot from contention for a second term.

Now a Cook County commissioner, Johnson ran on a platform of boosting schools, job training and affordability throughout the city while proposing several taxes on businesses and real estate to support new programs.

It’s yet to be seen how many of Johnson’s policies will win City Council approval and move forward. CoStar News reached out to Johnson’s team for comment but didn’t immediately hear back.

The specter of new taxes comes as the city tries to reinvigorate areas such as the Loop business district and the Magnificent Mile shopping district.

New taxes could add to recent commercial real estate industry concerns, such as rising interest rates that have slowed deals throughout the country and, more recently, bank failures that have made financing even more difficult.

Here are a few key real estate issues to watch under the new Chicago mayor:

Public Safety

Chicago real estate investors, developers and brokers widely supported Vallas, who was viewed as pro-business and made reducing crime — a top concern of property owners, tenants and many residents — the primary issue in his campaign.

Johnson’s results in dealing with the issue could be a significant factor in how fast, and to what extent, business centers of the city return to pre-pandemic levels of foot traffic and prosperity.

That includes making people feel safer on public transit while also addressing inefficiencies in a Chicago Transit Authority system that delivers thousands of workers to their jobs each day.

Downtown Chicago has been hit recently by some high-profile corporate defections. (Getty Images)

Headquarters Moves

It’s unknown whether Johnson, after promising to spread wealth throughout the city, will take an active role in trying to attract large employers to the city’s trophy office towers.

Lightfoot followed Rahm Emanuel, who was popular among real estate developers because of his pro-business policies and hands-on approach in luring corporate headquarters to the city from the suburbs and other areas of the country, including McDonald’s, Kraft Heinz, Motorola Mobility, Conagra Brands, Archer Daniels Midland, Motorola Solutions and Ferrara Candy.

Recently, Chicago has been hit by high-profile corporate defections, with aerospace giant Boeing relocating its headquarters to the Washington, D.C., area, and hedge fund Citadel moving top executives, including billionaire CEO and founder Ken Griffin, to Miami. Heavy machinery giant Caterpillar moved from a northern suburb, Deerfield, Illinois, to Irving, Texas.

In one big gain, the largest of three new companies spinning out of Michigan-based Kellogg will move its head office to Chicago.

Taxes

Johnson’s tax policies could be the largest hurdle in retaining jobs and creating new ones.

He has proposed a $4 tax per employee on large companies with at least half of their operation based in Chicago, which opponents argue creates a disincentive for hiring new workers in the city. Johnson also wants to boost hotel taxes and supports a so-called mansion tax that would significantly increase real estate transfer taxes on residential or commercial property sales of $1 million or more.

Johnson has pledged to stop property tax hikes.

Late last year, aldermen pushing for the “Bring Chicago Home” transfer-tax initiative saw their efforts stall amid pushback from real estate owners. The plan, which Johnson supports, would more than triple the transfer tax on sales of more than $1 million.

Funds would be used to address homelessness in the city.

Chicago already has the second-highest commercial property taxes nationally, and “Bring Chicago Home” — if enacted under a new mayor — would push up the city’s transfer taxes from No. 4 currently to No. 2, according to BOMA/Chicago, a trade association for 240 Chicago buildings.

Chicago is considering three office-to-housing conversion projects downtown, including Prime Group and Capri Interests’ proposal at 111 W. Monroe St. (City of Chicago)

Real Estate Initiatives

Lightfoot is leaving office as her Invest South/West initiative to bring real estate and business investments to the South and West sides gains its footing, with a few projects now underway.

The outgoing administration also recently picked three proposed office-to-housing conversion projects in the Loop to potentially receive $188 million combined in city dollars in exchange for setting aside 30% of the newly created apartments with affordable rents.

The full City Council likely won’t determine whether any or all those LaSalle Street Reimagined projects gain formal approval until Johnson has taken office.

Johnson has said he wants to significantly increase the city’s supply of affordable housing, but it’s not clear whether his administration will back the LaSalle Street proposals.

In a questionnaire response to Crain’s Chicago Business last month, Johnson pledged an additional $500 million investment per year to continue Invest South/West.

Ongoing Projects

Johnson also must decide whether to retain the city’s Lightfoot-appointed planning director, Maurice Cox.

Whether it’s Cox or someone new, the planning department’s leader will oversee the progression of several of the largest megadevelopments ever seen in the city, including the $6 billion Lincoln Yards project already under construction on the city’s North Side.

Ground broke last month on new roads and other infrastructure to support the $8 billion Bronzeville Lakefront project near the McCormick Place convention center.

Other major projects that have City Council approval but have yet to begin are The 78, a $7 billion project along the Chicago River between the South Loop and Chinatown, and Bally’s $1.7 billion casino campus planned for the Freedom Center site along the river in the River West neighborhood.