Canada's supply of new housing has lagged far behind its population growth and a new report from the Fraser Institute think tank lays out some hard numbers shedding light on the imbalance between people and shelter across the country.
Canada grew by an annual average of 553,568 people between 2018 and 2022, however, only 205,762 new homes were completed each year during that same period, according to the Fraser Institute study entitled Canada’s Growing Housing Gap, authored by Josef Filipowicz.
The situation was most dire in Ontario where 240,000 new people arrived each year between 2018 and 2022, while housing completions only averaged 71,000 homes during that time. In British Columbia, the provincial population grew by around 86,000 per year during those years, well over double the annual 40,000 housing completions during that same period. Alberta also saw a shortage of new home completions, as around 76,000 people moved in annually during that time, while only roughly 27,000 homes were built.
Canada's residential construction industry has lagged in its total number of new residential completions, as indicated by the fact that the country saw more homes built in 1974 than any year since, completing 257,243 homes at a time when the country had only 23 million residents compared to its 38 million people today. Indeed, in 22 of the 27 years between 1991 and 2018, Canada built fewer than 200,000 homes per year, according to the study.
During the three decades between 1973 and 2022, Alberta saw 2.4 new residents arrive for every new home built, the worst ratio in the country, followed closely by Ontario at 2.3 and British Columbia at 2.1. Quebec, Canada’s second-largest province, saw the arrival of 2 residents per new home during that same period.
The imbalance moved east in 2022, as Atlantic Canada got a taste of the housing woes, with New Brunswick receiving 11.3 new residents per every home built, followed by Newfoundland and Labrador at 9.7, while Nova Scotia had 7.7 newcomers per new home. Elsewhere in Canada, Saskatchewan had 8.2 new residents per new home and Alberta had 6.2 in 2022.
The average Canadian household contains 2.4 residents and about 29% of Canadians live alone, according to Canada's 2021 census data.
The study noted that Canada had 242 housing units per 1,000 residents, the worst ratio of the G7, which had 271 units per 1,000 residents according to statistics from 2020. An additional 1.8 million housing units would have to be completed for Canada to reach the G7 average, according to the study.
The Canada Mortage and Housing Corp. estimates that another 3.5 million homes must be built on top of the normal projected completions in order to restore broad housing affordability in Canada by 2030.
The Fraser Institute is a Canadian public policy think tank and registered charity founded in 1974. It is based in Vancouver and also has offices in Calgary, Toronto and Montreal, according to its website.