Much like actualized hotel performance, forward-looking hotel performance trends have been significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. Increased uncertainty surrounding border closures, lockdowns and entry rules to markets worldwide have depressed occupancy on the books as travelers choose — or are forced — to remain home.
While the overarching trend worldwide has been a drop-off in forward bookings, occupancy on the books and booking patterns can vary widely by market, based on local COVID-19 regulations.
Lockdowns Lead to Lag in Bookings
The United Kingdom remains under strict lockdown, with travel for all but essential reasons banned through mid-May. Across the globe, Australian markets are open to domestic travel, with brief “snap” lockdowns implemented if community transmission of COVID-19 occurs.
Occupancy on the books reflects these markets’ disparate handling of the pandemic.
London hotel occupancy on the books remains below 10% in the short-term, with bookings increasing as the market moves into summer and eventual reopening. Australia exhibits a more traditional forward-looking pattern, with occupancy on the books reaching near 50% in the short-term, before tapering off over the coming months.
Sunny Days for London Post-Lockdown
In late February, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that U.K. hotels might reopen beginning on May 17, and forward bookings shifted almost immediately following the news.
Nearly three-quarters of London hotel rooms booked for the next 365 days have a stay date post-lockdown. In Sydney, which is currently open to domestic travel, booked room nights are split nearly equally between the next 77 days and the 288 days following. In normal times, the Australian trend is a more common occurrence than the U.K. trend, but in COVID-19 times, lockdown and reopening dates play an outsized role in forward bookings.
To hear more about the impact of COVID-19 on hotel booking windows, tune in to the Hotel Data Conference: Global Edition on March 25 and check out the agenda to see the other markets and topics STR's analysts will be diving into.
Kelsey Fenerty is a research analyst at STR.
This article represents an interpretation of data collected by CoStar's hospitality analytics firm STR.