Canadian ski towns hit icy bumps as real estate developments faced some challenges that might have had less to do with snow than its elemental opposite: fire.
About 6,000 forest fires raged throughout remote, wooded areas in northern Canada this year, most notably in Quebec and British Columbia, as out-of-control conflagrations claimed over 18 million hectares of land. The blazes spread thick clouds of smoke particles to every occupied part of the country and throughout the northern United States and as far away as Europe.
The extended natural disaster decreased property demand in areas near ski hills, according to a recent report by real estate company Royal LePage. About 24% of recreational property experts from Canadian ski hill towns witnessed a decline in buyer demand this year because of natural disasters, notably forest fires, while 41% reported an increase in inventory as a direct result of rising interest rates, according to Royal LePage's report.
The Royal LePage 2023 Winter Recreational Property Report analyzed eight Quebec markets, five in British Columbia, one in Ontario and one in Alberta. The results show some of the biggest declines in condominium prices in British Columbia than any other Canadian ski market.
Condo prices declined in four of six ski areas of British Columbia, with Revelstoke dropping 12.7%, Sun Peaks down 9.9% and Big White down 9.1%. The study noted an 8.9% decline in prices in Southern Georgian Bay, Ontario, and a 4.3% rise in Canmore, Alberta.
Condo prices rose year over year in some of the eight ski-adjacent areas of Quebec, including Bromont's 11.3% increase and Mont Sainte-Anne's 83.4% increase. The sharp gain in Mont Sainte-Anne, which is east of Quebec City, reflects a wide range in property styles and price points, and scarcity of inventory, Royal LePage said.
Meanwhile, some of Canada’s more ambitious ski town real estate ventures have seen some tough moments of late, although not necessarily directly as a result of the forest fires. Troubled ski town projects in Canada include Brivia’s Versant Soleil project in Mont-Tremblant, Quebec, because of well-publicized financing issues. And a $3.5 billion resort project in British Columbia by Aquilini Development and Northland Properties, originally conceived in 2007, recently went into receivership. Also, the 45 retail outlets of the Mont Tremblant Retail Village in Quebec, a set of properties expected to fetch between $90 million and $100 million, failed to find a buyer at its asking price and has been removed from the market.
Westerners Tend To Be More Prepared
While the massive blazes were unusual, there can be no guarantee that the situation won't recur.
“We had a perfect storm of a wildfire season, including droughts, lightning, heavy winds and little rain,” said Céline Audette, a forest specialist for Environment and Climate Change Canada, in an interview. “It blew up into two or three of the biggest area fires we have had in a long time in British Columbia and Quebec. I don't want to say it was the worst we have ever had because every time we say that, we then get another worst.”
Audette said that fire consciousness varies by region in Canada, with Westerners being more in tune with the possibility of blazes than their Eastern counterparts. “They are more aware and more prepared. They have guidelines and emergency measures, while Ontario and Quebec haven’t had as many frequent fires,” Audette said. She advises people to stay indoors with windows and doors shut during days of thick pollution with air filtration units on. “I don't want to scare people but we need to be prepared.”
Municipal officials in Whistler, British Columbia, one of the towns analyzed in the Royal LePage report, note that the town is taking measures to tackle the issue of fires by investing $9.5 million for wildlife protection and prevention to be spent over the next five years.
“Living in a natural mountain setting is an attractive proposition for people from around the world; however, it is one which comes with risks. As the global incidents of wildfire increase, our job is to educate our residents and newcomers on how to mitigate that danger, and take the measures we can to properly plan for and prevent disaster,” city representative Julia Montague told CoStar News in an email.
The median price of a single-family home in Whistler's recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year remained flat, decreasing 0.4% year over year to $3.6 million, while the median price of a condo increased 3.4% to $600,000. For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at the mountain base, prices typically start at between $1 million and $3 million, according to Royal LePage. Total sales were down 12.3% year over year in the region.
Calgary Area
Canmore, a ski town west of Calgary that was also studied in the report, recently got the green light for a major residential real estate development that will effectively double its population. Mayor Sean Krausert told CoStar News in a text message that town officials expect to have no trouble filling the homes, forest fires or not.
The median price of a single-family home in Canmore's recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 9.6% year over year to about $1.7 million while the median price of a condo increased 4.3% to $696,900, according to Royal LePage. Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Canmore will remain relatively flat, decreasing just 0.5% over the next 12 months.
“We are not seeing an impact as described by the Royal LePage forecast," Krausert said.
A representative of the tourist board of the Lanaudière region of Quebec also appeared unshaken by the fires, noting that the total tourist home stock in the region has grown 339% since 2016.
“It's important to understand that the forest fires that raged in the summer of 2023 in Quebec were much farther north. The areas favored by cottage buyers and tourists looking to rent cottages for their summer and winter vacations in Lanaudière were not affected at all,” said Lanaudiére Tourism General Manager Denis Brochu.