Greater Vancouver real estate brokers and investors are doing their best this week to express confidence that the region’s property markets will weather the global turmoil attributed to the U.S. government’s shifting trade policies.
A number of attendees at the Vancouver Real Estate Forum that started Wednesday said they’re still bullish on British Columbia's property markets. That's despite a pause in leasing, sales and other deal activity as investors take stock of the effects of the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump shifting its policy toward imposing steeper worldwide tariffs.
There was tacit acknowledgement that if you need to express confidence, potential for disruption exists. Benjamin Tal, chief economist with CIBC Capital Markets, opened the conference by saying he expects the tariffs on Canada to eventually stabilize at between 7% and 10%. That's higher than the previous 2%, but well below the 25% rate imposed by Trump on steel, aluminum and other imports, Tal said.
Greg Appelt of multifamily and medical office developer Appelt Properties found reassurance in Tal's projection.
“One of my biggest takeaways is that the tumultuousness that we’re now experiencing is temporary,” Appelt told CoStar News. “This is called a trade war, and wars are, by definition, temporary.”
Appelt conceded that the trade turmoil has disrupted his projects in Ontario and British Columbia, including in Surrey, where he has a 463-unit multifamily development ready to move forward.
“This entire room, and the entire industry, is impacted by the disappearance of capital flows,” Appelt said.
'Heavy cloud' on sentiment
Prior to the most recent tariffs, institutional real estate investors were poised to return to deals after sitting on the sidelines for several years, CBRE Chairman Paul Morassutti said during his outlook for Canadian real estate.
“The market was craving normalization and stability — and that appeared to be in the cards, until it wasn’t,” Morassutti said. “It’s undeniable that U.S. trade policy uncertainty has cast a heavy cloud over both investor and occupier sentiment.”
The White House did not immediately respond to emails requesting a response to the executives' comments.
The Trump trade policies have “unended the old certainties that underpinned the world economy, replacing them with extraordinary volatility and confusion,” Morassutti added.
“That cloud is unlikely to fade anytime soon,” he added.
Ed Fitzpatrick, senior vice president with CBRE Capital Canada, said he’s been busy with property financings despite the tariff announcements.
"But many other people tell me that they're holding off because you can’t make decisions when the president says one thing one day and something else the next day," Fitzpatrick said.
Nearly 1,400 attendees are registered for the two-day conference at the Vancouver Convention Centre.