The Trump administration's evolving approach to shrinking the federal government's large portfolio of real estate is pushing property brokers to come up with new tools to track the changing requirements.
U.S. officials have identified hundreds of federal leases to terminate and properties to sell, and issued shifting lists of consolidations, property dispositions and lease cancellation notices prompted by the administration's cost-cutting Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. That's got brokers developing ways to track the changes as they lean into consulting roles to help property owners and others navigate the changes.
"As for our firm, and others that specialize in federal government leasing, we do see an increase in transactional opportunity," Chad Becker, a principal with brokerage Arco Real Estate Solutions, told CoStar News via email. He added that "we are taking very seriously the opportunity to lead our clients and this niche market through the chaos."
The speed with which the government is reassessing its real estate portfolio has caught many off guard. Government office moves are often years in the making, telegraphed by public debates over the budget and time-consuming deliberations; a change in administration can set the whole process back to the starting line.
But for those who are willing to be patient, a completed federal sale or lease can be hard to undo, providing landlords with a dependable cash flow for years to come.
At least that seemed to be the case until this year. What was previously considered by some to be a safe bet now presents new challenges. And the Trump administration's desire to cut costs comes at a time when office markets are already stressed by high vacancy and availability.
While the government has worked to shrink its portfolio before Trump stepped into the Oval Office for his second term, it has ramped up notifications of lease terminations it says will save American taxpayers money spent on unused or underutilized space. It briefly named more than 400 of its buildings considered noncore assets, before pulling that list from public view and listing other properties it intends to shed as it accelerates the disposition of property. And this month, Congress plans to further explore the portfolio and its maintenance and operating costs.
New tools
As the government's property strategy unfolds, Arco — a specialist in government leasing that's based outside Denver — developed a DOGE lease tracker as a means to visualize how widespread lease termination notifications are involving the federal government's property manager, the General Services Administration.
"While some markets are certainly going to feel the effects more than others, this is undeniably a national issue to pay attention to," Becker said.
JLL has also developed a method to track lease changes under DOGE, while Avison Young created a breakdown of termination option dates for GSA leases in metropolitan D.C. Avison Young found that in the next five years or so, 2025 marks the highest volume of leased space in the District that could potentially be subject to termination, while termination options in Northern Virginia and suburban Maryland are more evenly distributed across the same time period.
The GSA is “taking a hard look at each and every one of their outside contracts, brokerage and consulting included, to find ways to cut expenses,” Chad Habeeb, principal and director of brokerage at FD Stonewater in Arlington, Virginia, across the Potomac River from Washington, said in an email. “No doubt there will be short-term interruption for federal brokerage teams as leases are canceled, consolidated, and deals get put on hold. With less square footage to go around, some brokerage groups may go extinct.”
That's the immediate outlook, Habeeb and industry professionals told CoStar. Longer term, broader shifts are anticipated in how brokers do business
"Once the dust settles and [the General Services Administration] finally gets back to addressing their leases, I expect that the brokers will be more integral, not only on the process side of transactions, but also as strategic advisers and market experts," said Darian LeBlanc, an executive vice chairman in Cushman & Wakefield’s office in Washington, D.C., in an email.
Reexamining space
Where there's change in real estate, deals and commissions can follow, benefiting brokers even for a brief time, industry professionals say.
Changes underway by the federal government on how and from where employees work give the GSA an opportunity to further reconsider its space needs, according to a report last month from the nonpartisan watchdog Government Accountability Office and brokers.
“The GSA has been kicking the can down the road for the last couple of years on most large leases, trying to decide what they want to do with their leased and owned spaces,” Howard Traul, senior managing director at JLL in Washington, said in an interview. “The easier route, in most cases, was for them to renew, as funds were not available to move and consolidate.”
The role of brokers going forward in GSA deals comes as they have captured an increasing share of leasing assignments, as outlined in the GAO report. The annual number of leases signed by the GSA had dwindled from a high of 1,570 in 2021 to 1,084 last year. The number of federal leases involving brokers also decreased from an annual high of 313 deals in 2022 to 237 last year.
But while leasing was down, brokerage firms were participating in a larger percentage of the deals, GSA data shows. The report examined the fiscal years between 2016 and 2024. A GSA spokesperson said the agency leverages existing contract cancellation rights in its work to "enhance space utilization and secure better terms for the government — including better pricing."
Even so, while still in office President Joe Biden signed a bill into law in January that requires measuring building utilization and considering disposal of underused space.
In March, the GAO highlighted that federal agencies have long struggled with underused space, which costs millions of dollars. In addition, the GSA has deferred maintenance and repairs on many buildings, creating a burgeoning backlog. The GAO found that these needs had more than doubled, from $170 billion to $370 billion between fiscal years 2017 and 2024.
Shedding older property
“The messaging from the new administration to the market now is that they want to dispose of a number of older assets that have not been maintained and put agencies in smaller more hospitable, amenitized leased spaces in the D.C. area and around the country,” Traul said.
That requires more brokerage involvement, he added.
"While space will return to the market, it won’t affect the tightness in Class A+ and trophy properties — though dispositions could present redevelopment opportunities," real estate company Savills wrote in its 2025 first-quarter report, released in April, on the Washington market.
While the GSA reassesses its space needs, it is also aggressively reducing staff. The agency laid off hundreds of employees in March as part of an ongoing reduction in force, according to media reports. More are expected to come by May. That could ultimately benefit brokers who work outside the government.
“Given the massive downsizing/RIFs of federal personnel currently taking place within GSA’s Public Buildings Service, it appears that the feds will need to rely on their [GSA Leasing Support Service] brokers to a greater extent than before,” Cushman's LeBlanc said.
At this point, though, it is difficult to say when exactly brokerages could get a clearer picture of GSA needs and potential opportunities, Leblanc and other industry professionals said.
“Until what remains of GSA is reorganized with a clearer assignment of how they will acquire leases and/or construct new federal buildings, the broker’s role will also be unknown,” Ed Gregorowicz, a principal in government consulting services at Avison Young, said in an email. “There will likely be a continued role for brokers, but in an environment where there may be fewer large, long-term lease opportunities it may be a reduced role even with cutbacks to the procurement staff at GSA.”