A bayfront neighborhood in San Francisco that not so many years ago was little more than a collection of warehouses and a derelict railyard has become a magnet for homegrown restaurant chains.
Mission Rock is a 28-acre mixed-use project that has just begun to transform the vacant land near the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge, just south of Oracle Park, the home of the San Francisco Giants. The venture, a partnership between the Giants and developer Tishman Speyer, is set to redevelop 28 acres of vacant land on Pier 48 near the Bay Bridge — and overlooking the Giants' stadium — into a mixed-use neighborhood. Plans call for 1.4 million square feet of office space, 200,000 square feet of retail and 1,200 homes.
This week, San Francisco-born Arsicault Bakery became one of the latest popular Bay Area eateries to open an outlet in Mission Rock, serving its coveted croissants to tourists and locals at its third location in the city at 1070 Bridgeview Way on the ground floor of the new Verde at Mission Rock apartments. The bakery will be open weekdays only for the first month with added weekend hours starting April 5, after the Giants’ home opener.
The project’s development partners have targeted an array of Bay Area-conceived chains to lease space at Mission Rock, said Tishman Speyer and the Giants in a press release this week. New leases have been signed by Blue Bottle Coffee — a chain with a cult following that was originally conceived by an underemployed Oakland musician — and Sweetgreen, which makes salads and other fast-but-healthy dishes. Blue Bottle Coffee signed a 10-year lease to occupy 2,069 square feet at the base of 300 Toni Stone Crossing, a 13-story commercial building that also houses Visa’s Market Support Center. Sweetgreen signed a 10-year, 2,399-square-foot lease to open at the base of The Canyon, a residential tower located at the intersection of Dr. Maya Angelou Lane and Toni Stone Crossing.
They are joining a growing lineup of Bay Area-born businesses that have opened at Mission Rock, including Ike’s Love & Sandwiches, LuxFit and Proper Food, which opened last summer. Other popular San Francisco names there include Flour + Water Pizza Shop and Italian restaurant Che Fico as well as the first permanent location of Quik Dog, a popular burger and fries joint that began as a takeout operation from a Mission District cocktail bar during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“These carefully selected establishments enhance our vision of being a welcoming destination for all to enjoy,” said San Francisco Giants Vice President of Real Estate Development Julian Pancoast in the press release.
Larger office struggles
Office leasing at Mission Rock has been a somewhat different story, reflecting the struggles of the city’s larger office real estate market in recent years.
As of mid-2024, Mission Bay's office supply had nearly doubled over the past five years, with developers adding 2.7 million square feet since 2019, according to a CoStar analysis. That has been reflected in the area’s office vacancy rate, which registered at nearly 21% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to CoStar data, significantly higher than the submarket's five-year average of 15.6% and its 10-year average of 9.5%.
Mission Rock started out with a leasing coup in 2019, when Visa said it would move its global headquarters into the 13-story, 300,000 square foot Building G at 300 Toni Stone Xing.
The Golden State Warriors basketball franchise announced last October that it would lease just over 70,000 square feet at Mission Rock’s Building B, a 295,000-square-foot office slated to open this spring. And the San Francisco branch of Capgemini, a technology and consulting company headquartered in Paris, signed a lease for 30,000 square feet in The Canyon, a 23-story apartment tower in Mission Rock.
Visa so far remains the development’s sole major office tenant. There were press reports last month that World, OpenAI founder Sam Altman’s cryptocurrency project, was close to leasing 60,000 square feet in Mission Rock’s Building B, but a real estate source told the San Francisco Chronicle last week that the deal had unraveled “at the last minute.”
Looming growth
Broker Alex Sagues of CBRE said businesses and residents are drawn to Mission Rock and the surrounding fast-growing neighborhood of Mission Bay because it’s “a true seven-day neighborhood," with offices, life science hubs, healthcare options, entertainment and homes in the area.
"There is an event almost every day between events at Chase Center and Oracle Park, and it is also highly accessible by public transit," Sagues said. "These ingredients create a ton of retail demand and a great environment to operate in, which results in the most vibrant neighborhood in San Francisco.”
Mission Bay has proved popular with technology firms, with Chat GPT parent company OpenAI, for one, gobbling up office space in the area, most recently with a deal in late 2024 to lease all 315,000 square feet of the building at 550 Terry A Francois Blvd. after departing its former headquarters in the city’s Mission District. That was in addition to subleasing some 486,000 square feet from rideshare giant Uber at 1455 Third St. and 1515 Third St. in 2023. Rideshare giants Uber and Lyft both downsized their headquarters in the neighborhood following the pandemic; however, after shrinking its office presence elsewhere, Lyft renewed its lease at the China Basin for another decade.
The neighborhood appears poised to keep growing, with developers only halfway through their four-phase redevelopment of Mission Rock.
The residential developments that have opened so far in Mission Rock are helping push up rents in San Francisco. Multifamily rents in the city registered the highest yearly growth since the second quarter of 2022, according to a recent CoStar analysis. It noted that rents in popular Mission Bay saw the biggest increases over the past year, averaging 6.4%.
“The area continues to grow, with new office openings for Visa and OpenAI drawing workers and paving the way for retail, restaurant and more housing developments,” wrote Nigel Hughes, senior director of market analytics at CoStar.