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1. US GDP expected to dip in first quarter
Early reports on United States first quarter GDP growth clocks in at just 0.3%, a drastic drop compared to the 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024. CNBC Rapid Update, which compiles forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, reported this early assessment. If the report holds true, it would be the lowest recorded growth since 2022.
According to CNBC, Core PCE inflation remains at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department found Friday that inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of 0.6% in January.
“While our baseline doesn’t show a decline in real GDP, given the mounting global trade war and DOGE cuts to jobs and funding, there is a good chance GDP will decline in the first and even the second quarters of this year,” said Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics. “And a recession will be likely if the president doesn’t begin backtracking on the tariffs by the third quarter.”
2. Economic factors dampen festivities, travel for Eid al-Fitr in Indonesia
While Ramadan usually wraps up with celebrations for Eid al-Fitr, high prices on essentials have dampened the mood in Indonesia, The Associated Press reports. The Transportation Ministry said only 146 million people traveled for Eid, representing a 24% drop from last year’s 194 million travelers.
Additionally, the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry found that money circulation during Eid will reach 137.97 trillion Indonesian rupiah ($8.33 billion), which is down from 157.3 trillion rupiah last year.
Despite being lackluster, the spending surrounding holiday will still boost the country's economy in some capacity, and the government has rolled out some incentives to stimulate economic activity, including airfare and toll road fee discounts, cash assistance for 16 million households and more.
3. Iconic DC hotel celebrates 100th year
The Mayflower Hotel, Autograph Collection, has hosted many high-profile events over its 100 years, and this year, the hotel is celebrating its own storied legacy. Feb. 18 marked the hotel's 100th anniversary, celebrated with a party attracting Washington, D.C., Mayor Muriel Bowser and Lawrence Horwitz, executive vice president of Historic Hotels of America, among others, HNN's Bryan Wroten reports.
The hotel has other events scheduled to celebrate the anniversary through the year, General Manager Shelly DiMeglio said. Earlier this year, The Mayflower also hosted part of this year's presidential inauguration.
4. Canadians continue to opt out of US travel
Canadians are less likely to visit their neighbors to the south, deepening the U.S.'s $50 billion travel deficit, CNBC reports. President Donald Trump’s trade policies and threats of annexation as well as an unfavorable currency exchange rate contributed to the decline. Canadians also have safety concerns about travel to the U.S.
“These challenges are real and demand decisive action,” U.S. Travel Association said in a statement to CNBC, adding that it is “actively working with the White House and Congress to advance policies that drive economic expansion and keep the U.S. competitive on the global stage.”
The United States’ travel deficit last year was more than $51 billion, which means Americans abroad are outspending foreigners visiting the U.S., and there currently is still this deficit, according to Commerce Department data.
5. Hawaii tourism spending slows as hotel prices rise
Hawaii is still struggling to return its tourism numbers to its pre-pandemic glory, but rising rates for hotels and other lodging could be contributing to that lack of progress, SFGate reports. The Maui fires also affected the island's tourism numbers.
In 2024, Hawaii saw around 9.7 million visitors, which was a year-over-year increase of 0.3%, but a 6.7% decline compared to 2019. Meanwhile, hotel rates grew 29%, when comparing 2024 with 2019, to an average daily room rate of $365 per visitor.
With more costly accommodations, visitors are tighter with their purse strings when it comes to on-island spending.
“I have a lot of return customers, and what I hear from them is, ‘We used to come every year, but we can’t afford to. Now we come every other year, or we come every three years.’ They just can’t afford to,” Joan Channon, owner of the Bamboo Restaurant and Gallery on the Island of Hawaii, told SFGATE.