Hotels with significant meetings business not only need to navigate their way back to whatever the new normal might be but must also contend with the possibility of unpredictable developments as conferences and events return to their properties, according to operators, planners and analysts.

Among those possible surprises are an earlier-than-expected return of in-person gatherings; a higher-than-normal number of pre- and post-nights booked; a mix of virtual, hybrid and live gatherings that is difficult to forecast; and a wide divergence in how customers might respond to hotel policies on deposits, refunds, cancellations and attrition.

Bjorn Hanson, adjunct professor at the Jonathan M. Tisch Center of Hospitality at New York University, said that based on anecdotal research and multiple interviews with hotel managers and planners, a specific category of conferences has already returned in surprising numbers. They tend to be small- to medium-sized with 150 to 400 attendees — including accompanying persons, speakers, staff, vendors and exhibitors — conducted by organizations that “need” to meet in order to satisfy organizational or continuing education requirements and/or to generate operational revenues. These might be banking associations, medical specialty groups or professional designation groups.

Hanson said events might only be attracting two-thirds or less of the attendance of typical years, but attendees are booking rooms before and after the gatherings at impressive levels. With rates still relatively low, many are taking advantage of the situation to get away from home.

These events are at full-service hotels, Hanson said, so while restaurants might not be fully open, there will be food and beverage, fitness centers and other amenities “so these people can have a mini-vacation if they haven’t had one.”

Francois-Olivier Luiggi, general manager of The Pierre, New York, A Taj Hotel, said many organizations currently booking “need to sell tickets” and potential attendees for that kind of session “will not pay $5,000 for a Zoom conference.” Groups represent half of the hotel’s revenues, or $40 million annually.

While all of that vanished in March 2020, Luiggi said he retained his sales team of two full-time staffers and one part-time employee to stay in contact with clients and to reschedule dates. That has helped with getting back to pre-pandemic mode as quickly as possible, he said.

The Pierre is already solidly booked for the fall with group gatherings, Luiggi said. The property is very unusual in having only 189 rooms and 20,000 square feet of banquet space. It is not so important to fill the rooms as the hotel does well by the banqueting alone “because of our design and history," he said.

Ken Daugherty, general manager at Skamania Lodge, a convention resort in Washington state 45 minutes from Portland, Oregon, said groups are already meeting — though attendance is lower than usual. These events are running about 30 to 50 attendees as opposed to the typical 50 to 150. Many who are coming are booking pre-nights and post-nights, which is a trend that had been gaining ground before the pandemic, he said.

At Bethesda North Marriott Hotel and Conference Center in Maryland, which has 60,000 square feet of event space, general manager David Child said small meetings and social events are taking place currently in person and larger hybrids are also under way. He agreed customers are taking the opportunity of a hotel booking to extend their stays afterward to travel with their families in the Washington, D.C. area.

Hotels are doing whatever they can to jump-start the return of events. Steve Enselein, senior vice president of events for Hyatt Hotels Corp., pointed to Wild Dunes, a Destination by Hyatt resort in Isle of Palms, South Carolina, that used its outdoor patio to accommodate social distancing and provide creative food-and-beverage solutions during a recent in-person meeting. Attendees were provided with single-serve breakfast options, such as toast and yogurt parfaits, that they could grab at their convenience.

Armed with the knowledge that events will look different going forward, the Together by Hyatt program expands on the brand’s technology tools with new solutions, including a Swapcard platform that uses artificial intelligence to offer integrated virtual and on-site hybrid experiences, Enselein said. The company also created and hired for the new role of “hybrid event expert” to help planners address the complexities of hybrids and ”seamlessly” execute both virtual and on-site components.

The outlook is still very much in flux, said Mike Schugt, CEO of Teneo, a sales representation firm that books group meetings into 350 upscale hotels.

“What we’ve noticed since day one is that what you thought was going to happen a month ago is different than what you think today,“ he said.

He said the number of inquiries for requests for proposal the company is seeing this week is “exponentially” higher than what it saw last week and it was the same story the previous week.

General managers have varied approaches in how strictly they are dealing with meeting planners in light of the safety requirements as a result of the pandemic, Hanson said. For instance, the need to set up banquet rooms for social distancing is driving some general managers to be hyper-cognizant about attendance numbers.

He said the rationale for strict policies is often complicated by staffing issues. Many sales executives are better able to remain flexible by keeping a close eye on attendance. In the past, they might have requested a weekly update on projected attendance, but now that might be two or three times a week.

Hanson said meetings planners might have to sign a guarantee of a minimum number of attendees, but they will be allowed to change the date of events once. However, there are no consistent answers, he said. Some hotels are requiring no new date for rescheduling; others want a new date within six months.

“This is a transitional time and flexibility is a response to this situation rather than being a structural change,” he said.

One planner told Hanson he was aiming for a conference in Denver at a location with a nationally branded hotel on one side of the street and a different national brand on the other side. The general manager of one told the planner, “Tell us what you need and we will accommodate you.” The manager of the other said, “We’ll be flexible but we need these 10 commitments.”

Hanson said one was welcoming while the other said “we’re suffering.” However, he added most hotels are somewhere in the middle of those extremes.

The approach of hotels toward deposits, cancellation and attrition policies depends heavily on the market and the specific group. Luiggi said at The Pierre it has been helpful that the hotel has worked with the same clients for a very long time.

“We know a certain charity needs to raise money and will schedule a date and will go along with them if they need to cancel,” he said.

Normally, organizers must pay nearly a 100% deposit far out from the scheduled date, Luiggi said. Currently, that payment depends on the client. If it’s a big bank, requirements might be tighter while they will be more lenient for a charity fundraiser.

Rebecca Jones, vice president of industry relations for North America and Asia-Pacific at BCD Meeting & Events, said collaborating with hotels is as important as flexibility is to the hotel-planner relationship. For example, many planners want to use certain audio-visual experts while hotels want to use their own.

“Hotels shouldn’t box in the organizations,” Jones said. “It’s important to understand the needs of the customers.”

Jones said during this transitional period hotels are looking for the best RFPs for their short-term needs where they can generate the most revenue with the least red tape and fastest speed possible. She has seen hotels tell planners to sign on the spot or the rate will go up. Of course, that option is market-dependent with hotels in destinations like Orlando that have been more “open” having more leverage. Other markets continue to struggle, including San Francisco, Washington, D.C., Atlanta, Philadelphia and Chicago, and are weaker from a pricing standpoint.

Policies on cancellations, deposits and the rest are evolving, Jones said, although flexibility is still key.

“We have to work with hotels to allow for better attrition policies and more flexibility because we are at the mercy of continuous changes,” she said.

Daugherty said he has been working with each group individually to move meetings to different dates because “they are under the same stresses as we are.” He said if a planner wants restrictions that are more rigorous than those stated in national or state guidance, “we will do our best to work with them in that regard.”

With the way hotels are bouncing back, Schugt said they will be returning to “fair and reasonable” terms in the third and fourth quarter. They won’t be giving anything anyway, he said, but will be aiming for a return to pre-pandemic standards.