Real estate is a safe haven, a sound investment, an investment that has often outperformed in recent years.
But now it's all over. The sudden rise in interest rates, the widespread adoption of telecommuting in the wake of Covid, and even the express mutation of business practices have caused real estate to falter.
Yesterday's martingale has become today's losing machine. From almost guaranteed cash, we've moved on to the inevitable crash. The office has become the cursed asset, unless it is hypercentral. SCPIs, once cherished, have become the hated investment vehicle, unless they are neo.
Should we throw the baby out with the bathwater? While some are predicting a "great reset", investors are once again showing an appetite for real estate. This is borne out by all the surveys and studies carried out both locally and globally.
Real estate, an island of stability amid geopolitical chaos and a trade war that is still in its infancy. An asset class that still benefits from solid fundamentals, notably demographics. A long-term investment that retains its diversification virtues as part of an overall investment allocation strategy.
But beware: if the zinzins return to real estate, it won't be all real estate. It won't be everywhere. It won't be at any price. The current crisis signals the revenge of the underlying market, forcing players to sort the wheat from the chaff.
So tomorrow, will real estate investment be synonymous with cash or crash? The answer lies in the hands of the professionals. In the hands of those who know how to read between the lines of a market that is increasingly complex to decipher. Those who know how to offer the right product at the right time in the right place. Those with the composure not to panic. And those with the nerve to seize opportunities.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance, as disclaimers often state. That's why it's always interesting to compare the visions and analyses of all the players in the real estate chain - and that's also the vocation of our BIG UP event - to try and find clues for the next real estate cycle(s).