The U.S.-Canada tariff dispute has led to fewer Canadians making trips south of the border.
Flight bookings, border crossings and short-term rentals have dropped as the countries spar over tariffs. Mitch Vaughan, a former Montrealer who has been selling condos in Puerto Vallarta, Mexico, since 2020, said he's noticed another indicator: More Canadians have been shopping for homes in his area since the Trump administration came into the White House in January.
American officials put tariffs on goods exported to the United States, then ramped up those steps over the past two months. That's spurred calls in Canada for boycotts on American goods and a "buy Canadian" movement that reflects discontent toward the neighbor on the southern border.
“The market here was getting a little soft and there were more places available," Vaughn said in an interview. In the past couple of months "it has seemed a lot more people are more motivated to move" to Mexico. Vaughan said he recently sold a home in Puerto Vallarta for $800,000 to a couple from Toronto who had unloaded their million-dollar Florida condo.
"They said they were just glad to be leaving America,” Vaughan said. “If you bring up politics, they’re going to tell you how they feel. They are looking to escape.”
The U.S. expanded its tariff program in the past week to include a 10% baseline trade tax after placing 25% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on April 3 that Canada will match U.S. auto tariffs by adding a 25% tariff on vehicles imported from the United States, but the tariffs won't apply to auto parts, as factories in the two countries often combine to assemble cars in Ontario and Michigan.
Short-term rentals affected
As the trade turmoil intensifies, Canadians are committing to fewer short-term rentals in the United States. Stays by Canadians in the United States declined 10.3% in March compared to the same month last year, short term rental analysis firm AirDNA said in an email.
The decline is expected to take the biggest toll in areas such as the Buffalo-Niagara Falls market in New York, where Canadians account for 12.2% of those who book short-term stays, according to the AirDNA data.
United States residents took 23.5 million trips to Canada in 2024, and 14.1 million of those were overnight stays, according to Statistics Canada, the country's official statistical agency. Canadian residents took 39 million trips to the United States, including 20.2 million overnight trips. The Canadian travel deficit with the United States in 2024 was $14.2 billion, or just under 10 billion U.S. dollars, according to StatsCan.
Overall, Canadians make up about 2.6% of U.S. short-term rental demand in the United States, according to AirDNA. Los Angeles ranks as the top destination, with 4.1% of Canadian stays, the firm said.
Data from the Official Airline Guide notes a 70% year-over-year decline in advance passenger flight bookings for Canada-to-U.S. routes planned for the peak travel months of July and August.
Meanwhile, 23% fewer Canadians crossed the border in trips to the United States in February compared to the same month in 2024, according to Statistics Canada. The 1.2 million trips, recorded on the return leg of their journey, marked a “steep decline" in travel, StatsCan said.
The tariffs issue has dominated the federal election campaign leading up to the April 28 vote, with Liberals led by Carney and Conservatives lining up behind leader Pierre Poilievre. In response to the duties, Carney has put aside $2 billion in funding to respond to job losses in the auto production sector.
Carney signaled that he was prepared for the dispute to continue for some time, telling reporters the decision to enact tariffs on Canadian imports will cause “prospective damage to their own people,” and that the U.S. government “should eventually change course.”