The United Kingdom government’s policy on transportation has taken a very curious turn over the past few months, and I do not believe it now will please hoteliers outside of London.
Following the expansion of London's Ultra Low Emissions Zone to cover all of the capital, U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak suddenly decided he was the champion of the automobile and voters’ right to not be charged for owning older cars, which ULEZ targets.
There were jokes made about Sunak traveling around the country by helicopter; the official reply was that this is not out of the ordinary for such a busy official running an entire country.
Now, the government has hinted that it might scale back its High Speed 2 rail network, the purpose of which is to dramatically reduce transportation time from London to Birmingham, Leeds, Liverpool and Manchester.
That is a critical part of the government policy of “leveling up,” designed to share more of the country’s economic fortune with the regions.
The government also claims the rail network will provide faster, cleaner transportation.
According to the government document “Integrated Rail Plan for North and Midlands,” a rail journey from London to Manchester currently takes two hours and six minutes, while under HS2 it will take one hour and 11 minutes.
A journey from Leeds to Manchester — because the whole idea is that it is not only about London — currently takes 55 minutes, while under HS2 it will take 22 minutes.
Hotels will benefit vastly from this, as train travel remains a key, quick way of getting around what is a small island, although I am nonplussed as to why work started in London rather than in Leeds, Liverpool or Manchester.
Mayors and city officials in those cities and others now are outraged about possible cancellations of track-building and are asking the very relevant question as to how leveling up can work when one of the key plans for it is falling down.
In that government document published in November 2021, the introduction by then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson — remember him? — said: “I am proud to present the Integrated Rail Plan. The biggest ever government investment in our rail network, in redressing decades of underspending in the Midlands and North, and in leveling up our country.”
There evidently is a red signal, and the costs are eye-watering.
When the scheme was first announced in 2010, according to reporting by the BBC, the cost was estimated to be £33 billion ($40.19 billion). The price tag in September 2023 is between £106.6 billion and £180 billion, according to a critic of the scheme, Lord Berkely, who also was vice chairman of government’s February 2020 spending review of the scheme.
I was not a fan of HS2 from the beginning because of the huge amount of countryside and wildlife that has been and will be affected. But I am sure many people, hoteliers included, are frustrated that long-term business planning might now be jeopardized.
The scheme already is delayed by two years, and costs, as we all know, for almost everything are increasing.
Birmingham, nominally the country’s second city, although Manchester might argue with that, is in severe economic trouble. In late September, its city officials approved spending control measures and put in place a financial recovery plan as it battles to avoid bankruptcy.
The national government criticized Birmingham’s leadership and spending, but its possible plan to scupper large parts of HS2 hardly will calm the waters.
I have been told that land for hotels has been bought close to proposed HS2 lines, and hotels have opened by stations set to be part of the of the plan.
Underwriting for such hotels surely benefited from the rail project.
I have said this before, but the best plan would be to move the U.K. capital from London to somewhere in the North, which would slowly but surely move a lot of our social infrastructure with it.
Do not hold your breath waiting for that to happen as it will take far longer for that to become policy than it would take to complete an average train journey.
Of course, it is taxpayers who are picking up the tab for the increased costs, which will mean less money in their wallets. I really cannot see a complete cancellation of the project because it already is a monster that needs to be kept fed.
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