Is the office sector in France the big loser in the real estate crisis, the asset sacrificed on the altar of the depressed economy? Not so sure... We must be careful not to dwell too long on the unprecedented take-up figures, which testify at best to a schizophrenic situation, at worst to a catastrophic situation on the French office market. Once we've considered the unprecedented vacancy rate and the oversupply in peripheral markets, we need to point to the reasons for hope. I can think of at least three.
- France remains one of the most virtuous countries in the world in terms of getting employees back to the office. Cassandras be damned, our country seems to have struck a subtle balance in favor of face-to-face work, but above all, a balance that is sustainable, controlled, measured and managed, no doubt making American companies green with envy. What could be more reassuring?
- The traditional French office market is beginning to shift towards the operated office. Many of the transactions recorded in this market segment do not appear to be included in tertiary accounting. However, this is a fundamental trend which, at some point, will have to be integrated, measured and quantified... One of the major players in the commercial real estate market, Covivio, has made no secret of its intention to deploy operated office space across all its assets. What could be more obvious?
- Users have certainly regained market power in this great pendulum swing of the landlord/tenant relationship. This is only logical in a market where demand should drive supply. But they have not deserted the marketing suites. Beyond the legitimate financial issue, their primary problem remains reinventing (sorry for the overused semantics) their work tool into a place of cohesion and co-creation, leaving room for imagination rather than knowledge. What could be more exciting?
As France's largest commercial real estate show - the Simi - gets underway, the real estate industry has a rendezvous with its future. It's here, this Copernican revolution is upon us, this paradigm shift that is taking other asset classes in its wake. The epic of the office reflects changes in our relationship to work and time, just as the transformation of retailing embodied changes in consumption patterns. Never despair of change. The outraged office, the broken office, but the office (finally) liberated!