During the past few weeks, a number of brick-and-mortar retailers offered very cautious and even gloomy sales forecasts for the holiday season. But U.S. shoppers came out to stores in droves for the official kickoff of the end-of-year buying tradition.

A record-breaking 200.4 million consumers shopped over the five-day holiday weekend from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday, up 2% and surpassing last year’s record of 196.7 million, according to the annual survey released Tuesday by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. The figure surpassed NRF’s initial expectations of 182 million shoppers by more than 18 million.

The strong demand for in-store shopping is important for retail property owners, brokers and lenders after stores were hit hard by the onset of the pandemic in 2020 as early restrictions on openings and consumer concerns about going out in public led to an acceleration of online buying.

The trade group chalked up retail's strong performance during some of the busiest shopping days of the year to the strength of the economy, the ongoing resilience of consumers, available bargains and even the weather — and despite inflation and higher interest rates.

"We thought we'd have a big weekend and we did," NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said during a conference call with reporters. "So it was fabulous turnout and we attribute that turnout to a number of factors. It certainly speaks to the way consumers are feeling, but also the deals that were out there and the opportunities that retailers provided on goods, on items, on gifts that consumers wanted. [And] the weather was favorable in much of the country."

E-commerce shopping once again racked up a stellar performance Thanksgiving weekend. Online shoppers totaled 134.2 million, up from 130.2 million last year, according to the NRF. By contrast, 121.4 million people visiting physical retail locations to browse items and make in-store purchases, basically flat with 122.7 million in 2022.

Black Friday continued its run as the most popular day for in-store shopping, with 76.2 million consumers opting to visit brick-and-mortar locations, up from 72.9 million in 2022, according to the NRF. About 59 million consumers shopped in stores on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, down from 63.4 million last year.

Retail traffic analytics firm Placer.ai estimated that this year’s Black Friday brought a nearly 300% increase in indoor mall visits compared to the daily average for the rest of 2023.

Based on anonymous location data from mobile devices, analysts said, department store foot traffic was up nearly 334% from daily averages, with apparel stores rising 200%, sporting goods retailers up 323% and beauty and self-care stores increasing 375%. Research firm Sensormatic Solutions said Black Friday’s in-store traffic was up 4.6% from 2022.

And Black Friday — not Cyber Monday, continuing the trend that started in 2019 — was also the most popular day for online shopping. Roughly 90.6 million consumers shopped online on Black Friday, up from 87.2 million in 2022, the NRF reported. By comparison, roughly 73 million consumers shopped online on Cyber Monday, down slightly from 77 million last year.

E-commerce sales on Black Friday hit $9.8 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.

Online juggernaut Amazon on Tuesday said that its extended Black Friday and Cyber Monday holiday shopping event, which kicked off Nov. 17 and continued through Nov. 27, as its biggest-ever compared to the same 11-day period ending on Cyber Monday in previous years. Customers around the world purchased more than 1 billion items on Amazon, according to the company.

The NRF, which defines the holiday season as Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, has forecast that holiday spending will reach record levels this year and rise between 3% and 4%, totaling $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion. That's less than the 5% average growth rate in the past few years, but in line with the annual average increases of 3.6% before the pandemic.

Shay was asked about the downbeat predictions that a number of retailers — including Walmart, Target and Macy's — had made during their third-quarter earnings reports. Some retailers said they had seen a slowdown in consumer spending that they expected to continue.

"We still believe there's substantial savings sitting on the sidelines," Shay said. "So we feel good about this. There's no question that there's been some moderation and deceleration in consumption relative to the last 36 months as consumers work their way through, you know, the pandemic bonus checks, all the savings as other parts of the economy open. So I guess there's a difference between moderation and bleak."

Shay then referenced the NRF's forecast of 3% to 4% retail sales growth this holiday season,

"Some might observe that simply because you're going from 12 or 6 or 8 or 7% growth to three to four, that that's bleak," he said. "But on a historic basis, 3% to 4% growth is very in line and frankly slightly above trend of the last 10 years before the pandemic. So I think in general, we still see strength and running room and resilience for consumers and expect that to play out for the rest of the holiday season."

A spending slowdown that some retailers saw in October was in advance of consumers waiting for big sales on Black Friday and Thanksgiving weekend, according to at least one retail analyst.

"As I've been saying for about a week now, I was pretty bullish on the fact that we were going to see heavy promotions by retailers, which were going to draw a lot of customers either physically or digitally to consume," Naveen Jaggi, president of property brokerage JLL’s retail advisory services, told CoStar News. "And I think we've seen the numbers come out to bear that people spent. ... Every retailer that I follow or track or I shop with is promoting heavily on-site for all products on-site."

Jaggi said he did "a little street shopping and a little bit of mall walking," which included a visit to the Galleria mall in Houston, to get a first-hand view of consumer behavior on Black Friday.

"I look for bags and hands," he said, as those indicate where shoppers were going and what they were buying.

The NRF reported that the top destinations for Thanksgiving weekend shoppers were: online, 44%; grocery stores and supermarkets, 42%; department stores, 40%; clothing and accessories stores, 36%; and electronics stores, 29%.

The vast majority, or 95%, of Thanksgiving weekend shoppers made holiday-related purchases during the event, down from 97% last year, but in line with historic levels, according to the NRF. Consumers spent $321.41 on average on these types of items, consistent with $325.44 last year.

CoStar News reporter Lou Hirsh contributed.