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Newmark Cuts Outlook After 16% Drop in Third-Quarter Revenue

There’s a ‘Disconnect’ Between Buyers and Sellers, CEO Says
Newmark, based at 125 Park Ave. in New York, cut its outlook for 2022 after reporting lower third-quarter profit and revenue. (CoStar)
Newmark, based at 125 Park Ave. in New York, cut its outlook for 2022 after reporting lower third-quarter profit and revenue. (CoStar)
CoStar News
October 28, 2022 | 6:57 P.M.

Commercial real estate services firm Newmark posted lower third-quarter profit and revenue and cut its full-year outlook as higher interest rates resulted in industrywide declines in investment sales, lending and other activities.

Newmark’s third-quarter revenue fell nearly 16% to $664.6 million, led by a 37% slide in investment sales to $131.7 million, the firm said Friday in a statement.

Newmark isn’t alone in seeing a negative effect of a market seizing up. CBRE, the world’s largest commercial real estate brokerage that reported its third-quarter results Thursday, said it’s cutting $400 million of costs, with a significant portion through layoffs, after the capital markets environment “went downhill last month” and its sales and loan originations fell sharply.

Other industry brokerage giants including JLL and Cushman & Wakefield are scheduled to report their results next week.

Newmark said with the exception of its fee management services and servicing fees business that saw an 11% increase in revenue, all other segments, including net commercial mortgage loan origination and fees, posted declines. Revenue from leasing and other commissions fell 5% to $220 million.

Net income slumped to about nearly $37.7 million, or 15 cents a share, from $128.6 million, or 63 cents, a year earlier. Adjusted profit dropped 30% from a year earlier following an increase of about 10% year to date.

Newmark cut both its full-year revenue and profit outlooks. 2022 revenue is projected to decrease 4% to 7% from the prior outlook of it rising as much as 7%. Profit also is expected to decline from a previous forecast of an increase.

“This environment has created confusion,” Barry Gosin, Newmark chief executive, said Friday on a conference call, adding there’s a “disconnect” between property buyers and sellers. “We are an intermediary in a business where there’s trading. … The rapid rise of global interest rates has materially impacted transaction volumes. We do not expect volumes to rebound until interest and capitalization rates stabilize and the strong fundamentals of commercial real estate reemerge.”

Against the market uncertainty, Gosin, who said he’s worked in an environment when interest rates at one point were 18%, triple the current rate, expects industry transaction volume to “bounce back relatively quickly once interest rates are no longer rising and have stabilized.”

He added that “we couldn’t predict the pandemic. We couldn’t predict Ukraine. My personal belief is it’ll turn quickly ... when the banks will start lending and the Fed [pulls back on interest rate hikes]. ... The banks are in a good position to lend. ... [There’s] over $410 billion of global institutional real-estate focused capital waiting to be deployed and $2.5 trillion of commercial and multifamily debt maturing over the next five years.”

The market uncertainty also gives Newmark opportunity to make potential acquisitions, he said.

A “market where there’s a bit of adjustment is great for us,” he said. “Given the tremendous white space on our global map, we expect to have many opportunities to further expand Newmark’s platform as the industry consolidates around well capitalized full-service providers.”

Newmark has bought some companies in the United Kingdom, he said. For instance, in April, Newmark acquired London-based real estate advisory firm BH2. CoStar News reported exclusively in August that Newmark was in talks to buy Gerald Eve, the national brokerage, in a transaction that would propel it into the top league in the United Kingdom.

After online giant Amazon said Thursday it plans to cut its logistics and fulfillment network spending, raising concerns about demand for warehouse and other industrial properties, Newmark executives said on the call that they expect any potential pullback in industrial demand from Amazon will be made up by brands increasingly seeking to create their own distribution centers and logistics space.

Office Struggles

In a sign of the continued struggle facing the office market as the remote working trend has raised questions about the future demand for that type of property, Newmark said the sector fared the worst among its investment sales despite declines across all property types. On the leasing front, office property was also the area that declined while retail and industrial properties saw “stronger leasing activity,” Newmark said.

Among office leasing activity, Gosin highlighted the flight-to-quality trend of Class A buildings faring better than the lower-tier buildings, a common theme in the industry that speaks to well-resourced companies wanting buildings with desirable amenities to attract talent and bring workers back.

In another familiar industry pattern, Gosin said office demand was stronger in the Sun Belt market while traditional urban office markets trailed.

“There are certain types of buildings that are suited to be converted to Class A products,” he said, pointing to the example of some cast-iron office buildings in Manhattan’s SoHo neighborhood commanding well over $100 per square foot. “They are in demand.”

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