Migration patterns are likely to return to pre-pandemic norms over the next five years, with employees and residents moving back to larger metropolitan areas following the surge in exits during the health crisis, according to a recent report by Oxford Economics.
In 2020 and 2021, there was a significant increase in people leaving densely populated cities like New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Chicago in favor of regions with warmer weather and lower living costs, particularly in many Sun Belt metropolitan areas. Cities such as Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa, Austin, Charlotte, San Antonio and Jacksonville experienced the highest levels of in-migration during 2020 and 2021, surpassing previous years' numbers.
The report predicts a slowdown in migration to these areas in the coming years, though the overall net migration remains positive.
The exodus from the some of the largest metropolitan areas reversed patterns recorded prior to the advent of the pandemic. For instance, from 2008 to 2019, larger metropolitan areas like New York and San Francisco experienced robust inbound migration.
Oxford Economics says it is seeing signs those patterns are returning, and it predicts continued job growth in those markets to drive further recovery, even assuming a mild recession, between 2023 to 2027. Some regions, though, are likely to fare better than others.