With €1.3 billion invested in Q1 2025, as ImmoStat has explained in recent hours, the French retail sector has made a remarkable start: +53% compared with the five-year average (€832 million).
"A relatively unusual performance, underpinned by a number of large transactions," points out Benjamin Sebban, Director of Retail Investment at CBRE France. But beware of trompe-l'œil. "Volumes reflect a carry-over effect from Q1 rather than a strong start to the market", says the consultant.
Two XXL transactions accounted for almost 80% of retail investments and 39% of total volume on the commercial real estate market (€3.4 bn): the 40-60 JV created by Kering with Ardian and institutional investors (ACM Vie and Mubadala) on a portfolio of three Paris assets - Hôtel de Nocé, 35-37 and 56 avenue Montaigne - for €837 million; but also CDC Investissement Immobilier's acquisition of a 15% stake in the Forum des Halles round table for €235 million.
In fine, the number of transactions over the quarter fell from 29 in Q1 2024 to 27. "You have to go back to 2019 to find such a low volume," notes CBRE France.
"While the share of transactions under €50m has fallen, this segment nevertheless remains very dynamic across all retail typologies, benefiting from strong activity by private individuals and SCPIs, mainly the neo-SCPIs," analyzes Benjamin Sebban. "On the other hand, in the €50 - €200 million segment, there were virtually no transactions, with the exception of the Casino portfolio sold to Intermarché.
Benjamin Sebban continues: "The market seems to have suffered from the continuing mismatch between product quality on the one hand, and the rate of return expected by buyers on the other. The good figures for the quarter actually conceal a lack of fluidity at the heart of the market, with virtually no transactions recorded between €50 and €200 million. It proved difficult to find a balance between supply and demand for these volumes. Over the coming months, volumes should rebalance across the different size ranges.
In terms of asset type, retail parks remain in demand. "However, investors must evolve in an increasingly competitive market and find alternatives (such as looking for assets abroad or joint ventures) to meet yield requirements and market availability," notes CBRE France's Retail Investment Director. "The food retail sector also performed well this quarter, with a new Carrefour Market sale & leaseback transaction with Supermarket Income REIT for €39 million, and the sale of the Casino portfolio to the Les Mousquetaires group for €71 million. "
