A century ago, America enjoyed a decade-long period of flourishing social and economic prosperity so significant that the era became forever immortalized as the “Roaring 20s.” In the wake of the first World War and a devastating pandemic, the 1920s benefited from a society that had endured tragedy and poverty and was, to be frank, ready to party. With vaccines rolling out and the end of our own modern-day pandemic now finally in sight, the prospect of a similarly dynamic period of growth and celebration is a very real — and very welcome — development.
What factors will drive this new Roaring 20s? How will the coming recovery shape the hotel landscape in the months and years ahead? And what can struggling hotel owners and operators do right now to make sure they’ve got an invitation to the party?
Damage and Darwin
For many hoteliers, the biggest impact so far has been the precipitous drop-off in meetings and conferences. Those segments are essentially dead in the water right now. Zoom has helped the wheels of progress keep spinning for some, but the engine is running on fumes. The restaurant and hospitality sectors have had more damage done to people that can’t afford it than any other industry.
I recently spent some time in one of the most scrutinized and iconic markets in the world: New York City. The impact of the pandemic was painfully obvious. I stayed in one of just six occupied rooms in a major hotel near Times Square. When I went outside, large public spaces in one of the busiest cities in the world were almost entirely empty. Four out of five New York City hotel employees are unemployed, and 40% of hotels in the city are closed. While some weaker properties won’t make it back, that’s part of the natural capitalistic Darwinian dynamic that shapes every industry. And those that do survive will be positioned to benefit from a historic boom.
Social Creatures
To be clear, this is about much more than just an economic recovery. The 1920s had an almost hedonistic and indulgent atmosphere — an outburst of commerce, culture and creativity from a society that was almost defiant in its collective determination to enjoy itself. And if you don’t think we’ll see that same celebratory attitude once it’s safe to get together again, you’re not paying attention.
Humans have been genetically programmed over 200,000 years of evolution to be gregarious — to gather, to socialize and to share ideas and experiences. That genetic imperative isn’t going away. It may have been suppressed by the pandemic, but that’s all the more reason to think we are primed for a remarkable resurgence of pent-up energy.
Tech Please
Another reason for optimism: The maturation of artificial intelligence and other technical advances that will lead to significantly increased productivity. Automation is impacting a range of industries, but as it moves into the hotel business, the ability to automate tasks such as housekeeping and dishwashing will lead to huge savings on rising labor costs, and ultimately healthier bottom lines.
The Travel Bug
Along with what will certainly be a boom in overall consumption, the resurgence of travel and experience-seeking will throw more fuel on the fire of recovery. The influential millennial demographic has already shown that they value experiences more than goods, and I suspect also that a higher percentage of disposable income will be spent on travel and other experiences. People won’t just be trying to make up for a lost year, they will be shifting priorities and behaviors for the rest of their lives.
Getting There
With the light at the end of the tunnel finally visible, owners and operators have one overriding goal: Hang in there. Do everything you can to cut expenses. Get creative. Renegotiate your loan. But be persistent and be hopeful. Because if you can hang onto your hotel, you will make money. Fortunes will be made for those that can persevere. It won’t happen overnight, but it will happen.
In the meantime …
Get Social
Recognize the critical importance of social media in today’s (and tomorrow’s) industry. Invest in and commit to vigorous and comprehensive social media and digital marketing initiatives. Relying on the brands to feed your business just won’t cut it.
Don't Panic
When you’re stressed, you tend to revert to what you know about cost cutting. One area you literally can’t afford to cut costs, however, is in marketing. We didn’t fire our corporate sales and marketing folks — in fact, we hired more. Don’t panic and let go of those essential personnel. It might help over the next 90 days, but it will kill you over the next six months.
Keep Investing
No one likes capital expenditures — and the brands have slowed or halted that spending entirely. But, to the extent that it’s possible, it’s critical to keep making smart and strategic investments in things like amenities — including great Wi-Fi — and compelling new outdoor spaces that will attract and retain guests. Look ahead to the recovery, but also look beyond the next six to 12 months. You’ll need to keep taking on some new expenses and investments that won’t pay immediate dividends. But if you want to reap the benefits of the boom to come, don’t tighten your belt so much that you cut off your circulation.
Believe
Believe in yourself. Believe in the industry. Believe in the recovery. Because it is coming — and it’s going to be something special. In 2009, it took eight years for hotels to recover the value that they lost in the last recession. This won’t happen overnight. But once it comes, it’s likely to stick around. February 2020 was the end of more than a decade of good times — the longest running uninterrupted period of growth and prosperity in the history of the hotel business. What’s about to happen next, however, in the new Roaring 20s (the Soaring 20s) could put that to shame. We are coming up on a sustained stretch of performance that could very well be one of the most prosperous and consequential decades in the history of the hotel business.
It’s going to be awfully fun, folks. So, make sure your properties will be around to enjoy it.
Steve Van is president & CEO of Prism Hotels & Resorts.
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