Though hotels across the U.S. in 2022 recorded strong average-daily-rate growth, ultimately cost increases ate up any gains, according to U.S. preliminary November data presented by CoStar National Director of Hospitality Analytics Jan Freitag.
Rooms rates compared against 2019 achieved another month of double-digit growth in November, the data shows.
"This is no surprise, but what continues to worry owners and managers is that in real terms, ADR was actually 0.7% below 2019 results," he said. "In other words, inflation is so strong that it eats up all the gains made on the rate front. That's the story of 2022, right, that we record really strong ADR growth, and then almost nothing is left over because of the sharp cost increases."
The preliminary data also shows room demand was 1.2%, or about 1.2 million rooms, below 2019 results. It is unclear yet when monthly demand will outpace 2019, he added.
When looking at October 2022 profit-and-loss data indexed to the same month in 2019, Freitag said total revenue per available room is roughly 3% higher than it was.
The good news is that gross operating profit and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization per available room are both back to pre-pandemic levels.
"Labor costs are basically back to where they were in 2019 as well," he said. "According to the [U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics], the industry is still missing workers, so what the data means is that the existing workers are on the clock longer, but also that hourly wages have increased."
Forward-Looking Data
The net result from STR's Consumer Intention Survey shows a majority of respondents say they are planning for fewer overnight trips for fewer face-to-face meetings with colleagues, customers and visits to company headquarters or regional offices in the next 12 months compared with 2019.
However, the combination of business and leisure trips aren't as likely to be affected, with 44% saying they will complete about the same amount done in 2019.
"So, it's not a completely rosy picture when we look forward, but keep in mind, we are also projecting a mild recession," Freitag said.
STR is CoStar's hospitality analytics firm.
For more U.S. monthly data insights from CoStar's Jan Freitag, watch the video above.