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The Hotel Industry Has Reached an Inflection PointEverything Has Changed in the Hotel Business — Except for What Hasn’t
Chris Green
Chris Green

The hotel business looks very different today than it did last spring. Penetrating insight, right?

The slowly receding shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic still casts a lingering pall, and even as vaccine distribution and lower infection rates start to fuel a promising resurgence, hoteliers everywhere are grappling with immense, even existential questions about the industry and their place in it.

Questions like: Where do we stand? What now? What’s next?

The really interesting part is that once you start to dig into those questions, you end up in a very surprising place, drawn to the inevitable conclusion that the conventional wisdom about everything being different now maybe isn’t really wisdom at all — and might even be closer to a comfortable cliché than a piece of savvy guidance. Because while some things are undeniably different, a great deal more haven’t changed much, if at all.

Understanding where the industry stands today begins with recognizing that dichotomy. It requires us to see and think clearly about where the critical trends in the industry are coming from, where they might be taking us, and what it means to be poised at an inflection point in a recovery where recognizing the difference between what needs to change and what needs to stay the same can mean the difference between success and failure in a competitive, post-pandemic market.

Labor Pains

While there have been some encouraging signs in recent weeks, the labor landscape remains a significant industry challenge. Labor costs, high attrition rates, and a shortage of qualified candidates are all persistent and pervasive issues for which hotel owners and operators must contend. In the wake of pandemic layoffs and belt-tightening, the pool of available talent feels even shallower, and ramping back up is already proving to be a challenging hurdle.

So, what’s next? Salaries are going to go up — and, while that might be a painful initial adjustment for some owners, ultimately it could attract new talent to our industry. We have to make sure qualified and promising talent is rewarded and cultivated. We have to be relentless and vocal about the fact that hospitality is a career, not just an interim destination. This is a merit-based industry with meaningful opportunities for advancement and career development — and there are financial and professional rewards that come with diligence, dedication and hard work. I personally know friends and colleagues who have risen from being a bellman to a GM — living out that quintessentially American story of opportunity and advancement that isn’t necessarily available in many other industries.

Gut Check

In the turbulent wake of a historic disruption, there are strong arguments to be made that the stability of a large hotel operator with significant financial resources provides reassurance to owners. Conversely, some contend that more nimble, flexible and adaptive smaller operators have an advantage, given the fact that turning around the battleship of a large hotel chain is neither fast nor easy. Perhaps the sweet spot is somewhere in between.

I’d argue that size matters less than culture, and that, while there is value in striking a balance between stability/credibility and flexibility/agility, the durability of culture is a defining asset in times like these. Hotel management companies who believe in their people — and back up that belief with substance and strategic initiative by investing in and caring for their team — will have the advantage. With a strong culture comes experience and honed expertise, but also grit. It’s that grit that enables you to stay the course, even in the most turbulent times. The industry has just been through a storm. Hotel management companies whose people have stuck with them, and who have built a strong foundation of human assets, are those most likely to emerge from that storm in a good place.

New Ingredients, Familiar Flavors

Are there new ingredients in the recipe for success? Absolutely. But the fundamentals haven’t changed, and there are familiar flavors.

The scale of the current challenges certainly feels bigger, but the fundamentals of how to tackle those challenges haven’t changed — at least not dramatically. Hoteliers absolutely need to be flexible, open, and willing and able to explore a new way forward. They need to avoid getting hung up on old assumptions. But they also need to be careful not to forget everything they know — precisely because so much hasn’t changed.

It’s remarkable that some properties are trading above 2019 values when they’ve had close to zero cash flow for 15 months. It’s as if someone hit the pause button on the industry. This wasn’t inevitable: It was a pandemic. The prosperity of 2019 isn’t an illusion, and getting back there won’t require magic, just hard work.

Hotel owners and operators need to be cautious and not fall into the trap of doing something just to do something. Change for the sake of change isn’t strategy; it’s flailing.

Predictions and Possibilities

From podcasts to poetry, the phrase "things I think I think" has been a familiar tongue-in-cheek catchphrase that encapsulates the inherent uncertainty about predictions. In that spirit, I’ve always enjoyed thinking hard about what I got wrong and trying to learn from my mistakes. At this unique moment, however, that’s tough to do. I’ve been wrong plenty in the past — and I was certainly wrong about what was in store for 2020 and 2021 — but can I or any of us truly learn from that?

Our thoughts and predictions were based on core assumptions that were all thrown out the window with the shock of a black-swan event. In that context, we need to do two things moving forward: First, be willing to look at how things are, not how you thought they would be. Second, avoid rethinking everything you thought you knew based on the out-of-the-blue disruption of a pandemic.

Successful hotel management professionals recognize the importance of staying the course. That's the power of embracing the fundamentals that built your culture, your team and your portfolio prior to 2020. And they also understand the simultaneous need to remain curious, thoughtful and transparent — open to new opportunities and willing to make changes adapt to the marketplace. This is a fascinating time in the industry and in the world, and hoteliers who can navigate it successfully will be setting themselves, their properties and their partners up for sustained success in the years to come.

Chris Green is president and CEO of Chesapeake Hospitality.

The opinions expressed in this column do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Hotel News Now or CoStar Group and its affiliated companies. Bloggers published on this site are given the freedom to express views that may be controversial, but our goal is to provoke thought and constructive discussion within our reader community. Please feel free to contact an editor with any questions or concern.