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Decline in Commercial Real Estate Transactions May Just Be Getting Started

Recent Drop in Third-Quarter Transaction Volume Likely a Harbinger of More To Come

Transaction volume has held up well on a trailing four-quarter basis. Across the four main property types, investment activity was only down 6% quarter over quarter as shown in the chart above, and volume was still quite positive year over year in the third quarter. However, the past four quarters incorporate record sales volume reached in the fourth quarter of 2021. On a straight quarter-to-quarter comparison, commercial real estate transaction volume in the third quarter was about 25% lower than in the third quarter of 2021, and history suggests that sales volume will drop even lower.

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