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This Sun Belt City Had the Biggest Drop in US Apartment Rent in November

Big Construction Pipeline Pulls Rates Lower in Raleigh, North Carolina

Raleigh, North Carolina, had the largest drop in rent prices in November. (Getty Images)
Raleigh, North Carolina, had the largest drop in rent prices in November. (Getty Images)

North Carolina’s capital had the biggest monthly drop in rents among major U.S. apartment markets where rates fell in November, the latest sign the nation's surge in rent increases is easing.

Average rent in Raleigh dropped 1.1% last month from October, according to the most recent data from Apartments.com, a CoStar company. Seattle followed with a 1% decline in rent.

Rent hikes across the U.S. have slowed amid a rise in construction. Renters are also choosing to stay in an apartment with a roommate rather than venture out on their own as the economy appears to teeter, which means fewer households are created. Even Florida, where rents have been increasing at a quick clip than anywhere else in the country, no longer dominates.

In all, 31 of the 40 markets Apartments.com tracks showed rents fell in November from October. Year-over-year rent growth slowed for all of the markets. Each of the markets has 75,000 or more apartment units.

The nine markets that showed steady or some monthly rent increases in November tripled from October. October had five cities with monthly rents falling 1% or more compared to two in November.

What may be happening now is that rents are reaching normal levels, according to Ivy Zelman with data analytics firm Zelman & Associates. "The October numbers were pretty ugly," Zelman said during investment firm Walker & Dunlop’s weekly webinar on Wednesday.

Seattle was a repeat. San Jose, California, which topped October’s list of decliners with a 1.3% drop, slowed to a 0.9% decline in November. Nashville, Tennessee, which was at a 1.2% decline, flipped to a positive 0.3% last month.

Growth Slows

Raleigh’s decline comes after the city posted some of the strongest rent growth in the country in 2021 and into this year. Annual rent growth peaked at 18.8% a year ago and dropped to 18.5% in the first quarter then started slowing considerably as the year went on, following a trend reported around the country.

Nick Leverett, CoStar’s director of market analytics for Raleigh, said the main reason is leasing has not been able to keep up with the heavy spate of construction that has been adding new units at a steady clip. Vacancy has been rising as a result.

“The same dynamic is playing out on a national level, but to a lesser degree,” Leverett said.

The Raleigh area has a record 15,312 apartment units under construction now, according to CoStar data. That represents about 13.3% of existing units in the market. More than 8,600 are expected to open next year.

Meanwhile, the Sun Belt's dominance has ebbed. Jay Lybik, CoStar’s national director for multifamily analytics, wrote this week that the Sun Belt no longer leads in rent increases because fewer households are forming there and migration to those markets has slowed as people wait out economic insecurity before relocating.

Florida's markets, which had some of the top rent growth in the country, continue to slow. Palm Beach, Florida, still topped the list for a second consecutive time for month-to-month growth with a 1.7% increase following October’s 0.8% increase. But the year-over-year rent growth declined a percentage point to 2.8%.

Miami was the only other Florida market to show a monthly gain, coming in at 0.2%. Year-over-year rent growth, however, fell to 7.7% from 9.2% in October, still holding the top spot for highest annual growth. Tampa, Fort Lauderdale and Orlando have fallen back, showing further declines in monthly rent prices and annual rent growth.

The Orlando area's slowing rent growth comes as voters in Orange County where Orlando is located approved a measure on Nov. 8 to allow rent control after rents had risen dramatically last year and early this year. County commissioners called the rent hikes a housing emergency, a key determination under Florida’s constitution to take rent control to voters. CoStar data shows Orlando-area rent growth peaked in the first quarter at 23.4%.

The Florida Apartment Association and Realtors sued. A local judge ruled the referendum could go to the voters but doubted whether a favorable vote would stand. A state appeals court ruled the referendum was unconstitutional and that it should have never been on the ballot, prompting the original judge to rule that the results couldn’t be certified.

On Wednesday, Orange County officially appealed the ruling to the Florida Supreme Court.