While some of Canada's top apartment executives have differing views on where to build more housing, they all agree the country needs more supply.
"There is a tidal wave of demand that is almost alarming," said Mark Kenney, president and chief executive of Canadian Apartment Properties REIT, during a panel at the Toronto Real Estate Forum earlier this month. "We have to get back to the supply conversation."
Wendy Waters, vice president of research services with GWL Realty Services, said that, while immigration slowed during the pandemic, she expects the federal government to reach its target of 500,000 new entries a year.
"There is a huge tailwind for our sector," said Waters about growing immigration in Canada. "It's a huge opportunity for anyone who can get some housing built."
Ugo Bizzarri, managing partner and chief executive of Hazelview Investments, said the question is not about immigration or how to create demand but how to build more supply.
"It's very tough, and it takes a long time to build. There are not enough trades. Even if you want to build all the buildings you want, you don't have enough people to build them," said Bizzarri.
Kenney and Bizzarri sparred about where to build that housing, with the CAPREIT chief executive calling out the government for not making more land available for development, while the Hazelview executive suggesting the last thing needed is more urban sprawl.
"There is a finite amount of land," said Kenney, who wants the private sector to get involved in building municipal services like sewers. "We should all be brave on this topic, we need land we can build on. We don't have enough land to hook up to, yet land is everywhere."
'Go Up, Not Wide'
The position won a stern rebuke from Bizzarri, who said Canada could not just create geographically larger areas.
"We can't keep going bigger and bigger and become a Dallas," said Bizzarri, referring to the sprawling Texas metropolitan area. "You have to go up, not wide."
Kenney, who leads the largest publicly traded owner of multifamily suites in the country, responded and said he is not against going vertical but not all housing can be in downtown Toronto.
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., the federal Crown corporation that advises the government on housing, said in October what's hurting housing affordability in the country is that supply isn’t keeping pace with demand.
"Simply put, Canada is facing a housing shortage," said the Ottawa-based agency, which noted housing starts in the country's six largest areas fell by 5% in the first half of 2022.
Housing starts are around 275,000 monthly on an annualized seasonally adjusted basis, but the federal government has set a target of 400,000 starts annually.
Waters was asked whether new immigrants would continue to rent in traditional numbers or might be more likely to own.
"I think it will depend on the market. The cost of ownership in Toronto and Vancouver could keep them out. A $100,000 a year [income] is not going to get you into ownership," said Waters, wondering whether places such as Calgary might become a more attractive place to settle.
Home Prices Decline
The Ottawa-based Canadian Real Estate Association said the actual national average home price was $644,643 in October, down 9.9% from the same month the previous year.
Greater Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area are driving that average price. Excluding those markets reduces the national home price by $125,000.
Homeownership has pushed people into rental units, and Kenney said revenues are increasing at an alarming rate, albeit against rising costs.
The chief executive said he's concerned for Canada about the rising cost of rent in a country where a third of households rent. "If we don't get our act together on the supply side, the industry is going to have a problem," said Kenney.
Rentals.ca said average rents across the country in October reached an average of $1,976 a month, up 11.8% from a year ago.
Phil Fraser, president and chief executive of Halifax-based Killam Apartment REIT, said the sector is grappling with the reality of not knowing what its costs will be because of rising debt. That affects new construction and purchases.
"You almost have to pause to see the impact on your overall portfolio," said Fraser.
Jamie McKenna, managing director and group head of real estate at Fengate, said her company still has a significant investment in the rental sector but has to factor in higher rates.
"We have almost 5,000 units in our pipeline. But the next 12 to 24 months will be stormy," said McKenna. "But look at the supply and demand, and it's hard to argue you won't see the rent growth."