Restaurants and other retail venues such as movie theaters have reason to celebrate this holiday season: Americans say they intend to boost their spending on experiences in the festive period rather than just buying gifts.

U.S. shoppers plan to spend an average of $958 per person, 22.8% of which — or on average $218 — will used for holiday entertainment and experiences, according to a report, "Consumers Feast on Fun This Holiday," on an annual shopping survey that JLL released Thursday. By contrast, planned spending on physical goods — gifts and other holiday merchandise — is down nearly 14% from 2022, decreasing from an average of $868 a person last year to $748 a person this year, according to JLL.

In 2022, the survey didn't track "experience" as a spending component. So with that now gauged and added to planned gift spending this year, consumers’ overall holiday budgets exceed 2022, the $958 versus $868, JLL explained in the report.

"This year, we’ve seen a growing hunger for fun, immersive experiences," the JLL report said. "And they’re doing so more than they did in 2022. Almost two-thirds of respondents plan to dine out, while close to half will go to the movies — almost twice as much as last year. Consumers are not limiting themselves to one entertainment activity. Over 60% of shoppers plan to participate in two or more holiday experiences."

Coresight Research also released its U.S. retail outlook for the holidays Thursday, and it offered a relatively upbeat forecast while warning of looming economic headwinds that could impact sales.

"Recent spending trajectories give reason to be more optimistic for positive real growth in total retail spending this holiday season," Coresight said. "We estimate that total retail sales will see positive real growth and low-single-digit nominal expansion in the fourth quarter (both compared to one year earlier)."

The shift in spending from goods to experiences like dining out began in the wake of the pandemic when temporarily pent-up Americans were eager to get out with other people to socialize and enjoy activities. And that trend is now extending into this year's holiday season, according to JLL. The winners in this scenario include eateries and beleaguered movie chains.

"More than 90% of respondents plan to enjoy at least one holiday-related experience, 65.5% plan to dine out and 43.7% plan to go to the movies — almost twice what they planned last year," Keisha Virtue, senior analyst of research for retail at JLL, said in an email to CoStar News. "Given this trend, we predict that [food and beverage] sales will be strong during the holiday season. Indeed, we’ve already seen positive sale growth for [food and beverage] places this year as consumers pivot to services and experiences coming out of the pandemic."

She also referenced the survey's finding that most consumers will interact with brick-and-mortar retail in some way this holiday.

"Since most shoppers will interact with the store in some way this holiday — whether shopping in malls and open-air centers or using curbside or buying online, pick up in-store — it’s fair to say that restaurants positioned near holiday shopping venues will do well," Virtue said.

As for films, this holiday season Americans will have more to choose from, according to Virtue.

"In previous years (since 2020) there haven’t been very many movie offerings for consumers, but as production continues to pick up, I think we’ll find more consumers heading back to theaters if they have something good to watch," she said. "There are a number of movies opening up between now and the end of the year which should act as a draw for moviegoers, including 'The Marvels,' 'Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes,' 'Trolls Band Together' and, of course, 'Wonka.'"

Coresight singled out several retail categories that it expects to face challenges, as well as several that it believes will perform well.

"We expect big-ticket categories to see weak demand, as the housing market slowdown and tightened household budgets impact sectors such as electronics, furniture and home improvement (although the latter is not a typical holiday category)," Coresight said.

It added that "we anticipate beauty continuing to be an expanding discretionary category, helped by its intrinsic feel-good, low-cost, self-care and luxury attributes. In a more constrained context, we expect more consumers to purchase more thoughtfully, potentially limiting their impulse purchases — implying that brands and retailers with a strong 'destination' status that appeal to more considered shoppers are likely to generally outperform."

And it cautioned that macroeconomic factors could have an unanticipated impact on holiday spending.

"There are still downside risks, including the renewed volatility in the rate of inflation," Coresight said. "Student loan repayments are due to begin in October, albeit with higher income thresholds than previously. These repayments will capture an average of around $200 per month among those due to repay, according to Experian estimates and historical median estimates by the Federal Reserve."

It added that temporary benefit increases in the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which were introduced in April 2020, were phased out in March 2023, meaning that "holiday 2023 is the first in four years without these added food-stamp benefits — a fact that will likely prompt SNAP recipients to cut back elsewhere."

In its survey, JLL found that consumers will be doing their holiday shopping through a combination of methods.

"Approximately 57% of shoppers will use two or more channels to cross off their holiday lists," JLL said in its report. "For instance, roughly 48% of shoppers who order online for home delivery will also visit an open-air center and 41% will head to the mall."

Those malls will be popular stops for young shoppers, according to JLL.

"Much like the big-haired, acid-washed jeans-wearing Gen Xers of the 1980s, young shoppers will flock to the mall this holiday," JLL said. "Almost half (49.6%) of primarily Gen Z shoppers (aged 18-29) will shop in malls compared to the 40.8% average. Wealthy shoppers are also more likely to shop at malls (49.1%) as well as order online for home delivery."

Brick-and-mortar retail will continue to have an allure for some consumers compared with e-commerce.

"Stores still win out over online shopping for customers who want to see and touch products before buying," JLL said. "Almost one-third of shoppers cite this as the top benefit of shopping in-store. The sights, sounds and scents of the holidays are also a top draw for shoppers."

Nonetheless, the top place where consumers plan to do their holiday shopping is Amazon, followed by Walmart and Target, according to JLL. The top three store types on shoppers’ lists are mass merchandisers, department stores and electronics stores.